Away Mon & Tue

Next post will be on Tuesday evening.

Short Term Wave 3

So you should have all made a decent profit based on my previous post.
We hit a pip or two below todays projection and basically we are on the way down again.
Remember I have been telling you all to sell the rallies. Did you?

Good luck tomorrow.

Clusters on the Euro

A couple of you didnt understand how I managed to get the resistance values last night. The Euro chart above is 60 minutes and the clusters act as resistance.

Euro Overbought

Just a quick note to say it looks like we are getting into an overbought area so keep an eye on the Euro for a possible reversal within the next couple of days. Remember to sell the rallies at appropriate fib/pivot points! Resistance using APP and fib retracement from July 7th high and July 19th low at 12775 - 12810.

No chart attached as I am busy during this week but will provide chart analysis again from Monday.

Euro Wave Counts

Currently it seems the Euro has two possible wave counts. Although my previous post stated we may bounce, it seems today has changed that and although no definite wave count can be identified right now, the bias is for shorts rather than long.
Tomorrow may provide us with a clearer picture but for swing and position trades nothing has changed....the trend is still down.

Bounce Up

Due to technical difficulties I am unable to post a chart. Currently I am flat and have no trade on the Euro. We may get a bounce up before we continue our downtrend.

Slightly disappointing

Good evening everyone,

I spoke to a couple of happy people today and was not intending to post anything until tomorrow but after having has so many emails from people who did not make money today I felt I should say something.
I purposely updated the site with two posts on Friday night so that you all would get a chance to see it during the weekend and react to it accordingly. It seems most of you who did react got stopped out. The best news I had from you all was from a dentist friend of mine who made £1500 today.
Ok, when I mentioned about the turning points on Monday or Tuesday I was referring to a swing or position trade setup. Not pivot points setup or scalping (quick few pip trade). The setup entailed hitting a reversal fibonacci followed by a move down. We already had a big divergence on MACD so it was only a matter of time before we were due a turn. The fib time I showed on Friday gave a Monday or Tuesday reversal signal. Friday evening we hit 0.618 fib price so Sunday evening was a good time to look at placing your short. The problem a lot of you seemed to have was where to place your stops. The chart above shows where they should go if you were swing or position trading. However, if you went short at exactly the 0.618 fib price and ony put a 30 pip stop loss you would not have been stopped out. I am assuming most of you waited until we started to drop in price before placing your trade. If you are going trade the old, tired and so called traditional way of trading as taught by many so called "experts" then that is most likely why you have been stopped out. Trade setups are on fib numbers and that is the reason I posted them on Friday. Those of you who are unaware of how these trade setups with fib numbers are done need to buy the DTW Training Course. It is about $1000 and is 6 discs home study and is also the best training course you will get.

I will post tomorrow morning by mid day.

Euro Retracement Part 4

Above is a 60 minute chart and you can see we have hit 0.618 fib and also 288 bars are shown as a turning point on Tuesday. From both charts using fib price, time and if you check your MACD for divergence, the analysis shows for a change of direction.

I will not be posting on Monday as it is my B'day so hopefully you all see this over the weekend and decide your strategy from there. Remember to do your own analysis before placing any trades.

Have a good weekend.

Euro Retracement Part 3

Above is the Euro Daily Chart. According to my analysis, it seems we are due for a turning point around Monday which is the next trading day after the 21st.

Euro Retracement Part 2

I mentioned in my previous post that the market still looks slightly bullish and that we may well hit 50%.
Today we climbed to slightly below the 50% retracement zone and although I still think we might want to wait a bit, we have a divergence forming on MACD histogram and signal line. Unfortunately I once again am not able to keep an eye on the market but if you have a chance to glance at your screen every so often then look for a decent candlestick reversal for taking up shorts.
I won't be posting anything tomorrow so good luck and have a good weekend.

Euro Retracement Part 1

As most of you may remember, a typical retracement is 50% and 61.8%. We hit 38.2% yesterday and as the market still looks a little bullish so we may continue with consolidation or an uptrend for a little bit. However, position/swing trades should not be concerned by this correction but if the uptrend were to surpass all the fib retracements then the position would need to be reconsidered.
I would not advise to open any long positions based on what I have said as the uptrend is too limited.
Once again, the correction at or around pivot points or main fib numbers are good areas to open your orders.
Remember, the trend is still down.
No chart attached as nothing much has changes since last night.

Best of luck.

Euro 60 minute chart

I thought I would post this chart for everyone so you can see the fib values. As of 9.30pm today we have hit 0.382

Good luck tomorrow. I shall try to post some information before 9am if I get time.

Rally

Don't forget to sell the rallies. We are still in downtrend so for trading purposes rallies are just selling opportunities especially for swing and position traders.

Break below

We need to break below the recent wave 1 for a continuatiuon.

Euro bounce

We may get a Euro bounce soon as it has begun to look oversold.

Updates will be at a minimum this week as I will be very busy with other things.

Good luck.

Time

Good morning all.

For those swing trading Euro, I hope we have all had a successful start to the day. You may wish to scale out to gain some profit around the 12525 area.

I have added the chart above to show a fib time chart for a couple of you who asked and as you can see, the recent high of wave B was around the 1.618 fib time. The three main factors concerning trading are price, chart pattern & time. Everything on the Euro chart has all of those. I must stress though and I know I have said it many times before but for those of you who are new, no matter how fantastic a chart may look, nothing is guaranteed so trade wisely.

Good luck everyone and thank you to those who have donated to charity.

Euro Weekly Chart

After an enlightening conversation with a friend of mine earlier today, I decided to update the Euro chart and say a few words.

Hopefully this website is giving you all a better understanding of trading the currency. Although I can't tell you where to buy/sell or even place your stops, I can show you charts with Elliott waves and fib support and resistance. This should give you a good idea of the direction we are heading in. I have been mentioning that we are in a downtrend for a few weeks now but I am still getting emails asking if the trend has changed. The trend will remain the same until certain prices have been breached and I will come on to that in a moment.

Away from trading for a moment. I would like to point out I do not have charges, fees or subscriptions for my website but a couple of you have mentioned I should be charging for the information I make available. After giving some thought to this I have decided not to make any changes and this website will still remain free.
However, I would ask if you use the information from this website and you find it useful, I would be very grateful if you would kindly make a donation to one of the following charities below:

Cancer Research
SOS Children's Villages
Make a Wish
Cat's Protection

Whatever amount you wish to make really would be very much appreciated and would inspire me to continue updating this website so please please take a few minutes out of your day and make a small donation.

Thank you.

Ok, now back to trading the Euro. As I mentioned earlier, the trend on the Weekly chart of the Euro is showing as a trend heading downward. At the present moment, it looks like we have completed a wave B and are currently in wave C. Wave B completed around the 1.618 Fib APP which is a good signal for an end of wave.

Now the Elliott rule points out that wave C has to break beyond wave A which is marked on the chart as 11639. The downtrend will remain in place unless we break the high of what looks like a wave B marked on the chart as 12980. Of course we can always go back up to that area and test it again some more before we start to head back down again but unless the wave B high is broken then nothing changes. I hope that makes is clear for everyone. The trend is DOWN.

Lastly, if you use your software and perform this fib on weekly chart you may understand the trend being down slightly more. For those of you that have learnt the Dynamic Trading Method then you will know this. Using fib retracement, take the high on a weekly chart at wave B on June 9th and drop it down to the low of June 23rd. You will notice the recent price rally of the last two weeks has retraced up to the 0.786 fib. This is usually a reversal fib. Don't forget the recent strong support I mentioned to you last week has been broken on Friday. This will now act as a resistance.

Have a great weekend and good luck on your trades next week. Please don't forget to make a donation.

Many Thanks.

Euro Daily Chart

The daily outlook is a little different short term to the swing trade outlook as seen on the Weekly.

Although the trend is down it maybe we come across a short term bounce around the 0.786 fib shown in red at around 12625-12561 so watch price action around there. If we deal below 12500 with a pullback and continuation below 12500 then that would be a good sign to continue our downtrend.

Have a good weekend.

Euro Projection Daily Chart

The chart above shows the possible price projections for the ABC wave. If we continue our downtrend momentum (and we will undoubtedly have smaller waves up and down within the bigger downtrend wave) then the price could well hit those projections.
As always though, please do your own analysis.

Euro Resistance Daily Chart

Above is the daily chart of the Euro. Earlier this week I uploaded my Elliott waves and after having been asked yesterday if we have hit a top, I decided to upload a newer chart showing resistance and reversal. The three thin blue lines are my reference points. The thicker red line and thicker blue line are the projected points.
The thick blue line shows the resistance and possible price turning point and since hitting that price then we have headed down.

Software I use

I had an email today referring to one of the software packages I use and another email asking what software package I use.

For your information and to clear things up, I use realtime software and below I have listed the three main software programs I use for trading.

AdvancedGet which is my main and favourite software.

DynamicTrader which is my second favourite software.

Metastock which although I use the least is probably the most powerful for backtesting and creating strategy alerts. Email me for a $150 discount.

Price on July 13th 2006:

AdvancedGet costs $3995. However, if you decide you wish to buy this software then let me know as I can provide it for $2995 + Vat.

DynamicTrader costs $2100.

Metastock costs $1695. If you wish t buy this software then please email me as I can supply you with a $150 discount code.

Lastly, you may find it useful to get yourself a copy of website-watcher. Have a read on there website for the description but in a nutshell, for those of you that frequent certain sites (maybe even this) for updates, then this makes life a lot easier as it automatically checks to see when a site on your list has been updated then notifies you, saving you the time and effort to check yourself all the time.

I shall put some permanent links up later.

British Pound Resistance

Notice how the GBP is just at the resistance? This should be interesting. The bigger the time fram the bigger the resistance and this is a weekly chart above. That is not to say it might not break the resistance but I would watch this for a bit to see what it does.
As usual, do your own analysis.

Euro Dollar Resistance

The Euro is right at a fib resistance. Will be worthing watching it to see if it deals above this price.

Euro & Pound Values

Euro values on the left and Pound values on the right.

Euro Chart

A deal below 12690 could bring more of a bearish outlook.

Euro Dollar & Pound Dollar

The first column is Euro Dollar and the second column is Pound Dollar values for today.

Euro Support

If shorting the Euro, lookout around 12668 as there is a cluster support.

Cable Wave Count

Similar wave count on the British Pound to the Euro but wave 2 or B on Cable reached 0.786 exactly. If the wave count is correct then the price will at some point go lower than 17046.

Euro Elliott Wave Count

With my Euro wave count, on the 31st December 2004 is a wave 3. This is probably the case as wave B (red arrow) is around the 0.618 line. However, the 31st December 2004 could actually be a wave 3, the wave 1 or A could be the wave 4 on the 18th November 2005 so currently we could be doing a wave 5.
Although, as wave 2 or B is not only at 0.618 and but also a previous resistance and looks like the right shoulder formation. If this is the case and a head and shoulders is formed then the first wave count that is also labelled on the chart will probably be the correct one which would mean wave C will go lower than wave A.

Elliott Waves

Ok, I got your email referring to what Elliott waves the main currencies are on. I only count the waves for EurUsd and GbpUsd and will post both of these in the morning for you.

Resistance

The news was weak for US so Euro has shot up as a result. Im just about to leave so very quickly, look at Euro chart above for resistance areas shown by red arrows. These are shorting areas if we get that high.

Have a good weekend everyone.

Swissy

For those swing trading the Swissy, the confirmation has just occured (above) but wait the news before opening your position.

Euro Chart

This is the latest on the Euro chart. Ignore the divergence as the MACD is not complete & we have news due out which can easily overide technicals.

Anyone who is still wanting to do Anthony Robbins Unleash the Power Within then please contact me as the good seats are pretty much all getting taken up.

Have a good day everyone.

Non Farm Data

Morning everyone, expect to see a lot of volatility a little before and certainly after 1.30pm today. The Euro, GBP and CHF has been awaiting this data the last couple of days as you can see from the sideways movement.
I am on a course this afternoon so probably won't be able to update today so what I will say is don't jump into a trade too quickly after the news. Wait for the non directional volatility to subside slightly and let the market take off in a particular direction before openong a position.
Over all, again I will state we are still in a downtrend with the Euro. If we do go up on the Euro today then consider it a shorting opportunity. Don't short too early and after a big move we usually get consolidation before we often get a second leg of the same direction.

Good luck today.

Another slow day

Since the news we have not had much activity. This is undoubtedly because now the commercial traders are awaiting tomorrows non farm data at 1.30pm. Expect a lot of volatility with this.

Weekly Euro

Above is the weekly chart of the Euro. The red lines are support & resistance. The blue line is the 200 EMA & the black arrow was showing the previous trend down before the correction. If we do continue downward (which overall I suspect we might) then it looks like we are getting a head & shoulders formation.

No movement

So far this morning we have seen no movement. We will probably see little movement between now and around 1.30pm when we have an interest rate statement from BoE & ECB. We also have President Trichet speaking at 1.30pm as well as Unemployment Claims from the US at the same time so I would hold off placing any trades until all of these have been factored in & Trichet has finished speaking.

The active wave for GBP has now retraced (just). Lastly wait for the confirmation then place the trade accordingly.

Good luck today.

Today's Euro values

Hopeful you all managed to sell the rallies yesterday. Be patient today and wait for the reversal signals.

Correction on Euro

Seems like the retracement up this morning was only a correction within an impulsive move down. The correction hit 50% from the high and low of this morning as shown by the chart above.

Swing Trading GBP

Retracement level for the Pound is 18341 & confirmation is at 18189.

Swing Trading Euro

For those of you wanting to open a swing trade on the Euro, the retracement is 12706 and confirmation is 12593.

Commercial traders are clearly back at work

Seems like the commercial traders came straight in and started shorting today. Todays support & resistance for the Euro are quite narrow and that is due to a the trading range yesterday being so tight.
Below are todays key levels although at the time of writing this we seem to be going through all of them.



Above are the Euro support & resistance areas for today.

Independence Day

Today is July 4th and the commercial traders from the US will not be around. We may find thin volume on the markets as a result so from a trading point of view I would tend to stay out of the currency market until Wednesday.
I thought it might be worth noting that on July 4th last year we nearly completed the bottom of the left shoulder on the Euro of the inverted head & shoulder.

Divergence forming on Euro

June's monthly chart has produced a bearish Doji near a resistance area (above).
There is a divergence forming on price to MACD. We may see price moving downward again longer term as a result of this (below).