Friday, July 07, 2006
This is the latest on the Euro chart. Ignore the divergence as the MACD is not complete & we have news due out which can easily overide technicals.
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Have a good day everyone.
Non Farm Data
Morning everyone, expect to see a lot of volatility a little before and certainly after 1.30pm today. The Euro, GBP and CHF has been awaiting this data the last couple of days as you can see from the sideways movement.
I am on a course this afternoon so probably won't be able to update today so what I will say is don't jump into a trade too quickly after the news. Wait for the non directional volatility to subside slightly and let the market take off in a particular direction before openong a position.
Over all, again I will state we are still in a downtrend with the Euro. If we do go up on the Euro today then consider it a shorting opportunity. Don't short too early and after a big move we usually get consolidation before we often get a second leg of the same direction.
Good luck today.
Thursday, July 06, 2006
Another slow day
Since the news we have not had much activity. This is undoubtedly because now the commercial traders are awaiting tomorrows non farm data at 1.30pm. Expect a lot of volatility with this.
Above is the weekly chart of the Euro. The red lines are support & resistance. The blue line is the 200 EMA & the black arrow was showing the previous trend down before the correction. If we do continue downward (which overall I suspect we might) then it looks like we are getting a head & shoulders formation.
So far this morning we have seen no movement. We will probably see little movement between now and around 1.30pm when we have an interest rate statement from BoE & ECB. We also have President Trichet speaking at 1.30pm as well as Unemployment Claims from the US at the same time so I would hold off placing any trades until all of these have been factored in & Trichet has finished speaking.
The active wave for GBP has now retraced (just). Lastly wait for the confirmation then place the trade accordingly.
Good luck today.
Today's Euro values
Wednesday, July 05, 2006
Correction on Euro
Swing Trading Euro
Commercial traders are clearly back at work
Seems like the commercial traders came straight in and started shorting today. Todays support & resistance for the Euro are quite narrow and that is due to a the trading range yesterday being so tight.
Below are todays key levels although at the time of writing this we seem to be going through all of them.
Above are the Euro support & resistance areas for today.
Tuesday, July 04, 2006
Today is July 4th and the commercial traders from the US will not be around. We may find thin volume on the markets as a result so from a trading point of view I would tend to stay out of the currency market until Wednesday.
I thought it might be worth noting that on July 4th last year we nearly completed the bottom of the left shoulder on the Euro of the inverted head & shoulder.