Waiting for my flight

Im at the airport having missed my flight thanks to an accident on the M25 so as I have 4 hours to kill I thought I would do an update.

NFP was not good for the US hence the Dollar plunge and subsequent rise in the Euro on Friday. Most of this week we have been awaiting the NFP data and when it finally came we still have not managed to get a direction. I realise the Euro has shot up on Friday but it has not done anything new. It has not broken 12980 resistance because the momentum ran out toward the 12900 area. In addition the Euro closed below the 12900 figure which doesnt hold well for much more bullishness.

In my opinion, unless the price was to firmly break the 12980 area, we will either go range bound or down. My personal opinion is I think we will go down based on all the above and if you take a look at the chart, we currently have a possible turning point with time. However, I am not around now until Wednesday to see how we get along so good luck in the coming week to you all.

Please ignore the fib price numbers on the chart as they are incorrect. The fib time are ok though. To project the correct fib price, take the high from June 5th 2006 and drop it on to he low of July 20th 2006 and you will see we just marginally missed 0.886 fib (12921) on Friday.

Have a good week.

The Fibonacci Sequence

For those that asked, here are the fibonacci numbers.

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, 4181, 6765

Currency Volatility

We should see a huge amount of volatility today. I have not attached a chart as this is unimportant because news will overide technicals today. That doesnt mean we will break 12980 as that seems to be a strong resistance but it is dependent on how good Non Farm data is.

Good luck.

Turning Point

Today we have ECB and BoE interest rate decision as well as Trichet speaking so expect volatility. Tomorrow we have Non Farm data so once again expect even more volatility.
The chart shows a turning point today but that may not come into effect based on news that is due out. News will overide technicals in the short term but technicals overide in the long term.

Yesterday we were 5 trading days from the recent low and the price rallied to exactly 0.941 fib plus today is a fib time extension from the previous high of June 5th so numerous factors are showing the significance of the time right now. Unless we break 12980 the trend is still down.

Good luck.

Euro Projections

Here are some projections on the 60 minute chart for you.

Euro run up

Hi all,

We have been away for the last couple of days so have not posted anything. Only just got back a little while ago and after having a quick glance at the Euro I see it has done a rally up. In all honesty I was not expecting this but having looked at the news I see we have Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate out on Friday. For this reason I am staying out of the market until the news has come out and we get our direction again. Expect a lot of volatility around 1.30pm London time on Friday.

As it stands right now the trend is still down. However, the NFP may push the Dollar down causing the Euro to go up which in turn could change our trend so it is best to stand aside and watch until either our current direction is resumed or a new wave count is formed.

I still have a short position and short swing trade open but my stops will be lowered this evening to be on the safe side.

Good luck this week.

Away Mon & Tue

Next post will be on Tuesday evening.