Yen up Overnight

Yen continued in strength overnight despite reversal formations. However, it has produced a double top this morning. I would normally say short now but both Presidents are speaking today & volatility will be high so unless you are a risk taker (although risk is limited as stop should be just above previous top) stand aside until the volatility has calmed down later today.

Have a good day.

Yen Chart 2

Here is a daily chart of the Yen. Based on history, you can see how accurate fib time has been. The high of December 5th 2005 and the low of May 18th 2006 has projected the high (0.382), low (0.50) and high (0.618) very accurately. The recent high of 0.618 fib time is the 26th August & possibly a wave 2 or B.

Please do your own analysis before taking on this or any other trade.

Good luck and good night.

Euro & Yen

Above is the Yen chart and as you can see we have a tweezer formed and currently what looks like a formation of a spinning top (but wait until the hour is up and check that again). The DTosc also looks overbought and we are also hitting a the top end of the trend line (not shown on chart above but check that on weekly chart drawing a line down fron the top of Feb 1st 2002 and the top of Dec 9th 2005). In addition to that we are at a fiib reversal.
The analysis shows shorting opportunity on Yen but to be sure maybe waiting for the DTosc indicator crossover (34) to occur would be safer bet but you decide. Stop shoud be couple of ticks above recent swing high providing only limited risk.

The Euro is just bobbing along without any real direction as everything is pending what President Trichet has to say tomorrow. After he has spoken, later in the day we have President Bernanke speaking so expect huge volatility tomorrow.

Stand aside (unless already in a trade) and wait for direction to take place before committing to a position.

Good luck tomorrow.

Dollar Down Yesterday

After most of the day with the Euro sailing down & the Dollar heading up yesterday, the minutes pushed the Dollar down in the evening. The Euro at present is range bound and has not produced anything for us to get a new confirmation of direction which still suggests the Euro is heading down.
Unfortunately my sell stop was not triggered and missed out on the move down (remember sell the rallies?).

If unsure of what the Euro is doing (which most people are as the unfolding waves are complex) then stand aside and wait patiently for a sell signal. Use fib and swing lows to evaluate appropriate entry points based on a 60 minute chart.

I will not have time to post in the morning tomorrow so I will try to post this evening with a chart.

My opinion is over all the Euro will still be heading downwards be it with some bounces on the way.

Good luck.

Euro Bounces

Good morning all,

The Euro has done a bounce. The 0.786 fib is at approximately 12900 and we could possibly see a bounce to 12916 if the uptrend continues. The DT Osc shows a bullish signal at present but unless we surpass the 12980 we will return to our downward movement. I have a sell order to open around the fib retracement area with stop above 12980.
Please do your own analysis and if you are unsure then the best thing to do is stand aside and wait until you feel more comfortable to short the Euro.

No chart attached as outlook has not changed.

I will be divulging some very important news within the next week. Awaiting US Govt approval.

Best of luck.

Bank Holiday

Normally we don't get too much activity during the bank holiday in the UK so I will not be trading or posting any analysis today.

We have currently started to see a bounce up on the Euro but this is most likely due to institutions not playing any major part in the market.
Even if the Euro zone continues to bid up, don't be fooled until or if we deal above 12980.

Enjoy your bank holiday. Weather looks great for the ducks!

No Analysis Today

Sorry folks, I will be away until early next week. I shall post my next analysis by Monday morning.

Brief word regarding the Euro is the trend is still down and we should see more weakness to come.

Those of you who have followed and used my analysis this week should have made very good money. I know a few of you have already donated to charity this week and I thank you very much. If you have not already done so and have enjoyed good profits this week then please take a moment out of your day and make a donation to one of my chosen charities.

Thank you.

Good luck today and have a good weekend.

Just as I posted previously...

Just as I posted my previous update the market seemed to have completed the 5 waves. Above is the chart with what looks like 5 wave completion. The analysis is based on using Dynamic Trader APP.

Euro Possible Reversal

From the first chart you can see the Euro may well have completed a 5 wave downtrend and we may bounce up for a correction a little today before resuming a downtrend again.

I was asked how I know when a reversal takes place. It is not always easy to spot but reversals usually take place on fib points, pivot points or with candlestick formations. Recent candlestick formations are on the second chart.

Good luck tody and look for a reversal before opening shorts again.

Thanks & Trends

I recieved three emails and two text messages from people who have done well yesterday based on my analysis stating they will donate to charity. I just want to say thank you to those that have done well and are donating.

I also recieved a couple of emails and it seems this is becoming a trend of it's own. I mention about the trend being down and I get asked how I have worked that out as the trend looks like it is up. The answer to that is to work top down. If analysing charts you look at one time frame (such as 60 minute only) and it is down, look at the bigger time frame then you can not notice the overall trend. A top down approach is what is needed to work out the trend. Check the weekly, daily and hourly which will give a beter idea of trend. Just because the 60 minute is up, doesnt mean the weekly is.

This can also be helped tremendously by using fibs. I really urge anyone who has not done so as yet, go and buy a copy the Dynamic Trader Workshop. It only costs $997 for a 40 hour home training course and is one of the best courses you will have.....trust me!

Yesterday's shorts

Those of you with standard accounts should have made in excess of 1k yesterday based on the analysis. If you did use my analaysis as a basis for your trade then I would please ask if you would make a donation to one of my charities.

The Euro has still got some way to go down but as you can see from the daily chart, it took a breather at exactly 0.681 fib yesterday. We may have a little bounce up before commencement downward again.

The second chart shows the weekly view and nothing has changed (even though some of your email are asking if we are going up now). We are still going down.

Good luck today.

Euro & Email issues

Sorry for those of you who have tried to contact me but have had no reply. I have had some email problems that I was unaware of until yesterday and they are hopefully now fixed and working again.
I shall reply to all the emails today/tomorrow. If you have not had a reply from me by tomorrow evening then please email me again as your original mail may have gone astray.

On the trading front, if you are day trading then don't forget to lock in or at least break even on the Euro after moving down this morning. If you are swing then you can minimise your risk a little.

Euro Reversal

The Euro hit 12940 with a hanging man on the 15 minute chart yesterday which was a good sign to go short if you were watching the market. I was not able to watch the market so I had a short open at 12906 with a stop above 12980.

I hope those who were already short took note of Friday's update and managed any open positions accordingly.

We may now see a move down for at least a couple on hundred pips in the coming weeks.

Sorry for not posting yesterday. Next post tomorrow morning.

Good luck today.

Euro Analysis

After analyzing the Euro this morning I hope most of you made some profit yesterday.
I would suggest locking in your profit or at least break even otherwise use the spreadsheet to scale out. The reason I mention about profit this morning is looking at the shorter term elliott waves, I have noticed there maybe a possibility of another bounce up prior to a move down. This can be worked out by using 60 minute and 15 minute charts. Unfortunately, where I am at present has a slow internet connection and data transfer is nearly at a halt so trying to upload a chart is just causing the connection to hang.
If we do bounce up then we might see the price reach or go above 12906. If and when this high ends then we can look at shorts again.
So for those of you that may well have started shorting, I would consider profit taking or some kind of management so the profit does not disappear.
If we deal above 12865 then 12893-12906 may follow.

Good luck and have a good weekend.

Euro Fibonacci

The Euro has bounced up on the .618 fibonacci time. According to the analysis today is 21 trading days from the low of July which is either wave 1 or A so we could get a change of trend today or tomorrow allowing for a good swing short trade. We are also near the fibonacci price reversal points. In addition we are also forming a MACD divergence on the 15 minute chart and the 60 minute chart.
The trend is still down.
Nothing in trading is ever guaranteed and I urge you to please do your own analysis and as usual good luck on your trading toay.

Euro & GBP Pivot Points

Euro Dollar and Pound Dollar pivots for today.

Cable & Euro

Above are the Cable & Euro daily charts. Stay out of the market until BoE minutes have been released. I will update the charts again tomorrow which should then give us a better idea of direction.
What people tend to find frustrating is to sit on the sideline and not actually trade when they should stay out of the markets. Right now is one of those times until we find a direction for both the above. However, the Euro still seems more clear cut & I still feel we have a way to go down on the Euro although todays minutes may possibly provide a bounce.
As always please do your own analysis after the minutes have ben released.
Dynamic Trader version 5 has finally been released.

News

Sorry for the late post today.
Above is today's pivot points for Euro and Cable.
It is best to await the CPI and BoE news tomorrow before placing any swing trades. If you are already shorting then I would tighten the stops a little.
I will post charts tomorow.

Cable

I am also short on the GBP as of last night. I will place an analysis on Cable tomorrow. The risk is minimal at present although it is still a risk. Please do your own analysis as always.

What Now?

Morning,

The Euro has hit near the 50% zone (12686) so there is a possibility we may see a bounce up toward 12784-12810. While in the swing trade position, perhaps a scale out point should be taken just in case. Even if we continue to go down from here at least you will have banked some profits.
Don't forget we have BoE Meeting Minutes on Wednesday so the market may well drift in anticipation of that.

Overall, I have swing shorts open (although scaled out) and will contiue to do so unless we break 12810. I believe we have a long way to go before the Euro bottoms out. The trend is still down.

Next Update Monday

Price Action

Morning everyone,

We had a good reversal at 8am this morning which is nice for the day traders using the pivots.

Look at the weekly chart trend line above. Price down is more likely than price up.

Yesterday those who went short just below 12900 based not only on price but we hit 0.941 fib should be smiling. Those of you who still do not know what the reversal fibs are go buy the training course.

Sell the Rallies

A couple of emails asking me if the trend is down then why has the market gone up today? The two people that have asked me about todays direction definitley go and buy the training course. The simple answer is sell the rallies until or if we break 12980 resistance area. Everytime we rally up it is a selling opportunity and shorting the Euro in a downtrend is not difficult when you know where the reversal numbers are.

The Euro Trend

Morning everyone,

I hope we have all had some gains since Saturday. As I was busy yesterday I was unable to watch the market but I had placed a sell order to open based on the FOMC yesterday. My order was at 12896 and the Euro did go up all the way but only to 12895 so it did not trigger. When I got home the first thing I saw was the chart and was very happy only to then look at my account and find out my order wasnt filled. Very annoying but these things happen!

As we have still not broken 12980 we do not need to analyze our trend direction.....it is still down. I have been consistently chirping to you all that the trend is down over the last few weeks and that is still the case. For swing trades, take a good reversal fib point and reversal candle for shorting. If you are unsure about which fib numers I am talking about then do yourself a favour and buy the DTW 40 Hour Home Training Course.

FOMC Meeting

Hope you all made a good profit yesterday. Remember FOMC at 7.15pm UK time. I am flat right now.

Waiting for my flight

Im at the airport having missed my flight thanks to an accident on the M25 so as I have 4 hours to kill I thought I would do an update.

NFP was not good for the US hence the Dollar plunge and subsequent rise in the Euro on Friday. Most of this week we have been awaiting the NFP data and when it finally came we still have not managed to get a direction. I realise the Euro has shot up on Friday but it has not done anything new. It has not broken 12980 resistance because the momentum ran out toward the 12900 area. In addition the Euro closed below the 12900 figure which doesnt hold well for much more bullishness.

In my opinion, unless the price was to firmly break the 12980 area, we will either go range bound or down. My personal opinion is I think we will go down based on all the above and if you take a look at the chart, we currently have a possible turning point with time. However, I am not around now until Wednesday to see how we get along so good luck in the coming week to you all.

Please ignore the fib price numbers on the chart as they are incorrect. The fib time are ok though. To project the correct fib price, take the high from June 5th 2006 and drop it on to he low of July 20th 2006 and you will see we just marginally missed 0.886 fib (12921) on Friday.

Have a good week.

The Fibonacci Sequence

For those that asked, here are the fibonacci numbers.

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, 4181, 6765

Currency Volatility

We should see a huge amount of volatility today. I have not attached a chart as this is unimportant because news will overide technicals today. That doesnt mean we will break 12980 as that seems to be a strong resistance but it is dependent on how good Non Farm data is.

Good luck.

Turning Point

Today we have ECB and BoE interest rate decision as well as Trichet speaking so expect volatility. Tomorrow we have Non Farm data so once again expect even more volatility.
The chart shows a turning point today but that may not come into effect based on news that is due out. News will overide technicals in the short term but technicals overide in the long term.

Yesterday we were 5 trading days from the recent low and the price rallied to exactly 0.941 fib plus today is a fib time extension from the previous high of June 5th so numerous factors are showing the significance of the time right now. Unless we break 12980 the trend is still down.

Good luck.

Euro Projections

Here are some projections on the 60 minute chart for you.

Euro run up

Hi all,

We have been away for the last couple of days so have not posted anything. Only just got back a little while ago and after having a quick glance at the Euro I see it has done a rally up. In all honesty I was not expecting this but having looked at the news I see we have Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate out on Friday. For this reason I am staying out of the market until the news has come out and we get our direction again. Expect a lot of volatility around 1.30pm London time on Friday.

As it stands right now the trend is still down. However, the NFP may push the Dollar down causing the Euro to go up which in turn could change our trend so it is best to stand aside and watch until either our current direction is resumed or a new wave count is formed.

I still have a short position and short swing trade open but my stops will be lowered this evening to be on the safe side.

Good luck this week.