NFP

Hope you managed to make a profit on the Euro Dollar yesterday. After our long call it increased by 100 pips so we locked in profits on that trade. This week should see you in profits with both USDCAD and EURUSD that we called a short and long on respectively.

We are all awaiting NFP so no trading suggestions for today.

Forex Analysts

Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Interest Rate Statement

All eyes are on the Fed's statement today so we will have thin volume. We have taken a bullish stance on the Euro with a tight stop loss. Your trading should be limited today until after the news. Don't forget we have NFP out on Friday so depending on todays news we may all turn to Friday for a direction on the currencies.

Right now we have USD in the sell zone and GBPUSD in the buy zone.

Forex Analysts

Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Loonie Profits

Hope some of you managed to trade USDCAD yesterday and taken profits. If you are still in that trade then ensure you manage the position.

The Euro Dollar is looking a little bullish so we are looking for an opportunity for a long position. We have some US news out which could be Dollar negative so will watch out for this.

On January 30th the Fed come out of a two day meeting with an expected 25bp or 50bp cut. Some analysts are calling for a higher rate cut but that looks unlikely at this stage. We did say another 1% cut could happen between now and the end of 2008 but this could happen before the end of this year. This cut would ease concerns of recession but probably not for long.

We have a heavy fundamental week ahead so be warned.

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Forex Analysts

Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Loonie Breakdown

The USDCAD did not manage to break above the MOB so it looks like weakness could be setting in. We may have a bearish flag being created and if that is the case then wait for a break below the low before entry for short. The Ellipse show possible support regions and also use Figures for supports.


Chart courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Euro & Pound Rally

The Euro and Pound made some nice gains today. Neither have quite made it in to our buy zone yet but we will keep you posted.

Over the last few days we have had a lot of reversals. Not sure if these reversals will hold up but this weeks Comms data will enlighten us.

So many of you have commented on yesterdays post regarding N.V's story. If you have not read it yet then you can do so by clicking here. A question that has been asked a few times now is if N.V comes from a trading background. The answer is no, his background is I.T.

We are indoor sky diving today so will not have any new poisitons to analyze or report today.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

£45,000 in 1 Month

We have President Trichet speaking later this afternoon so it should be interesting what he has to say today. Today's news movers will be existing home sales in the U.S and BoC Monetary Policy. We will manage our positions accordingly.

Below is N.V's story I referred to yesterday. N.V has created a profit of £45,000 in the last month. You can read his story below.

I have been trading with very small capital for a while and during this time I had no clue why I made some profit or loss and the factors that contributed to it, I used to always think what you probably think how can I know what is going to happen next? There are a billion people in the market and anything could happen!! … rubbish!! This much I know there are some who seem to win most of the time in trading … this begs the question what is it that they know that I don't.

I started looking for a mentor who has been through this and understand the Psychology behind trading. I then met Javid what caught my attention was his knowledge trading and more importantly his focus and command over his emotion. Only after a few conversations with him I immediately sensed that he is a seasoned and experienced trader and this was the mentor that I was looking for. I then managed to persuade Javid to teach me some of the techniques (for a fee of course). During the training some of the mysteries around trading started to blur away and I was able to find the answers to the 'why's and the how's' and truly understand the power of using strategies in trading. Although at the time some of the techniques seemed to make sense once I got back to my trading desk I was still a bit a bit nervous, only this time I was able to predict the direction of the position and almost magically it happens as predicted.

Now for the numbers I ended up making a 200% (yes two hundred and yes your bank gives you 5% for a year) return in a month time, after which I lost out on a bit but this is down to psychology (you may experience this too that after a series of wins you will start feeling invincible and let go of the strategy and then you make mistakes). The key is to stick to the strategy. For me now I am focussing on consistency, once I get my consistency and my psychology sorted I can kiss my 100K/year job goodbye.

I sometimes ask myself why is Javid doing what he is doing why is he sharing his secrets and techniques with others but then again I don't understand Mother Teresa either, someday I will !!!

Cheers & Good luck,
NV

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Surprise Rate Cut

The surprise 75 basis point rate cut after yesterdays losses brought the interest rate down to 3.5% and in doing so took the Dollar down with it. Euro, Sterling and Swissy all rallied against the Dollar.

The U.S now have the third lowest interest rate of the G7 currencies, just below Switzerland. Japan has the lowest rate and at just 0.5% and New Zealand has 8.25%. Between now and the end of 2008 we could see further cuts in the region of 100 bp in the U.S.

The USDCAD is struggling at the technical 200 SMA resistance as mentioned by the confluence yesterday (click here to read).

If you are a stock trader have you been concerned recently? The S&P500 sunk on opening but recovered and ended the day with a reversal candle. The markets are at levels of support now. The question is whether the support is sufficient to bounce the market and if so how high? It will be interesting to see what happens on this index during the week.

Lastly, congratulations to N.M who Javid mentored recently and has made over £45,000 profit in the lasy month. You can read his story in Thursdays update. Well done N.M!

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Stock Markets Selling Frenzy

Two sections to todays analysis.
1. Stock Markets Selling Frenzy
2. Range Breakout

We had a signal on our mechanical trading system for shorting the NZDUSD on Friday. Since entering the position we are now locking in profits. A break of the 200 moving average could be followed by further weakness but could also be followed by remorse. If this is indeed a fake out then losing profits gained at this stage would be insane so if short on this pair, it would be advisable to manage this trade now. We also reached the Ellipse which adds to the confluence.


Chart courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal.

The Euro Dollar produced a 200 pip move today and from when we updated the website it moved another 80 pips so those that took the short on the Euro should be in very good profits and should also manage this trade. This pair is in our sell zone but we have time on the 23rd January so please be aware of that just in case of a reversal. 1 Hr and 4 Hr are producing convergence with MACD. Next big support in the region of 1.4300.

Below is a daily USDCAD chart. We have added it to show you a confluence. Use our entry stop technique to trigger this trade for a continuation or reversal to filter any fake outs.. You could add RTC to the recent uptrend and use that for a break down and the 200 moving average for the breakout.


Chart courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal.

Below are new entries.

Sell Zone
AUD USD
NZD USD

Buy Zone
GBPNZD

The FTSE fell 323 points. This is the worst drop since 911. Germany and France saw even bigger drops. We could see a very horrible opening to the US market tomorrow. Stock traders are rushing to sell. Scared selling is typical when fundamental news from around the world is certainly not encouraging. While millions are being wiped off the stock markets, the currency markets are are still performing well based on our fundamentals and technicals.

Many analysts were speculating the Euro Dollar would be breaking it's previous all time high at the beginning of this month. That could still be true but the technicals were showing possible weakness which we showed you on our chart in December. We also called a short on the Pound Dollar for this month and that has fell more than 500 pips.

Those of you who took out a short swing position on the Euro Dollar or the Pound Dollar based on our analysis will be in very good profits in less than a few weeks. In fact profits would exceed a couple of months salary so we would ask you kindly to make a donation to one of our chosen charities in the usual way. Please remember the concept of abundance and take a moment to make that donation. Thank you for your help.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Range Breakout

At the end of last year S.J (read his story here) asked me if I trade Euro Pound. I said no mainly due to the fact it ranges predominantly. Of course when I answered the question I had not looked at the market at that time and obviously was unaware it had finally broken out of the range above 0.7000 and was now trending. It subsequently has trended fairly well since then and I have missed out on the whole move.

The chart below shows the daily Euro Pound cross broken out of it's range. The interesting thing here is every time it moves up it goes back in to a comfort zone and produces another minor range formation until it is confident to breakout. Watch for a break out or break down on this one. Currently at 0.382 and a figure which could result in a bearish flag before a continuation in a downtrend or a reversal from a support. On the break out candle use our entry stop loss technique.


Chart courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analyst
Javid Shaik

Euro Dollar

We have been asked a few times now what we think will happen with the Euro. The answer is we do not know. All we can go by is our technical analysis and back in December we updated the site with our analysis of the Euro showing resistance. Based on that our trading bias was to the short side but if we broke the resistance we would have adapted and taken a long position. Since the high of January we have seen a drop of over 400 pips (at the time of writing this) and are just below a support level today which could end with a fake out.

The short term view of the Euro was a short. On one of our systems we had a sell signal on Friday but did not take a position on this pair until after midnight today and have managed a 100 pip profit so far. We are now managing the trade.


Chart courtesy of Metastock. Data provided by Quote Center.

We also had a failiure at a fib reversal and divergence (neither shown on chart) all adding to our confluence prior to taking this trade.

We also updated yesterday so please have a read below.

Good luck this week.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

The Week Ahead

This week the US calendar is light so the focus will largely be towards Existing Home Sales due out Thursday.

The BoE minutes will be highly anticipated and GDP is expected to have slowed down.

The Euro zone will be focussing on German IFO which is expected to be weaker again.

The BoJ minutes are released but most of the focus will be on CPI.

The BoC is expected to cut it's rate and CPI is the focus here.

Australia will release it's CPI and PPI data.

The daily GBPCAD hit 0.618 on Wednesday and on Thursday promptly reversed with a bearish engulfing candle. It might be worth putting this on your watchlist for a breakout or breakdown (the figure).


Chart courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Consumer Sentiment

We have sentiment out today which could move markets depending on results. The expectation is 74.8 and previous was 75.5.

EURUSD has found support at 1.4600 but we need a b&c of that for further weakness.

AUDNZD is in the buy zone and up 50 pips before we cashed out.

EURJPY daily (chart below) has nearly reached the leg 2 target so those that are short should look to manage the trade.


Chart courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal.

Have a good weekend

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

New Zealand Dollar Yen

We have closed off our NZDJPY short yesterday with 150 pips profit. We have taken a long position last night on this cross and this morning scaled out and are risk free.

We took a short on the Euro as well and are managing this trade.

The GBPUSD is out of our sell zome but is not in our buy zone yet so we are standing aside.

The Dollar Yen is still in our sell zone but based on our previous update we are standing aside.

Some of you who we know personally like trading the Euro Pound. Thats cross is now out of our buy zone.

We would like to say a thank you to our good friend Donal for yesterday. We spent the day with Donal at the Business Design Center being educated on art. Having no experience in art we had an expectation and have to admit it was not very high. We spent almost 9 hours walking around and whatever limited beliefs and expectations we had are now no longer the case. What a fantastic day and amazing learning curve. We walked away with our eyes opened to a completely new world and also our first piece of art work we purchased at £5000. Thank you Donal and we look forard to visiting your art gallery soon.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Fib Reversal Level

A few of you have asked how The Student (who Javid had trained almost 3 years ago) has been doing. Well, he has provided an update for us below.

Hello traders! been a very long time since i last spoke to you guys, hope everybody had a nice christmas and welcomed the new year with a resolution to make more pips in 2008 than in 2007! well thats my one.

As most off you know i am a student and so my time is divided between trading, studying and then all the other things 21 year olds do but trading is the one thing that is going to benefit my future.

I have been testing a new strategy over the last 2 months and am now in a position to actually trade it, its a day trading strategy and i do not mind spending a bit of time at the computer in order to make the pips.

Last year in October made £10000 in three weeks, that covered my costs through to January. Upon looking at those winning trades again i noticed that i could have made much more if I followed a simple rule, letting my profits run! I'd see the money in the account from a trade and made decisions in order to protect that money. They turned out to be bad decisions as i lost out on larger profits. Now for 2008 i have adjusted my exit strategy so that the profits keep running and i exit the trade when my stop is triggered. Lets see what i can do this year??? Next update will be in a couple off months as i am in my final year and have many deadlines due in march.

Happy trading.

Kalam
a.k.a The Student

Thanks Kalam. We will try to get Turkey Catcher to provide an update soon.

We are off to the London art fair today so the analysis is brief. The Euro Dollar is in the buy zone but it is at a fib reversal area. We do have a mini divergence happening with MACD. If we break that and then the next resistance (all time high) then we have potential for further strength. If we fail here then we could see weakness or perhaps range bound characteristics.

We are standing aside on the Yen for the time being but are ready to jump on to the bandwaggon should an intervention take place.

We were triggered into a short yesterday on the NZDJPY. This cross is in our sell zone. It has also hit a fib breather level.

Bernanke will be chirping today so watch out for that.

Ok, good luck to you all and have a great day.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Citi Bank Earnings

The largest bank in the U.S will be announcing it's Q4 earnings today. This could have a big effect on the markets depending on the results. It is widely expected that they will announce significant decrease due to major write downs.

The USDCAD has a resistance at 1.0250. It is current still in the buy zone.

The EURUSD has resistance at 1.4950. It is currently in the buy zone.

The GBPUSD has support at 1.9300. We have been short this pair since originally mentioning it here and again here. Logically this pair may retrace and have a pullback before a continuation but we are still in the sell zone on Cable. The buy zone is not until the 1.99 teritory so we are some way away.

The AUDUSD has it's next resistance at 0.9060. This is well in the buy zone and we were triggered into this pair on Thursday at 0.8789. Currently this pair is up more than 200 pips. If you are also long this pair then be aware we are at a fib breather level.

The USDJPY is very close to support and perhaps intervention. Although this pair is in the sell zone, this is one we will stay out of for the moment.


Chart courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal. Click here for more information.

Forex Analysts

Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Euro Entry

Good morning,

We entered the buy zone this morning in the Euro at 1.4855. We are 30 pips in to profit and are now managing the trade. If you are also in this trade the watch the fib reversal.

The speculation continues on what figure the Fed will cut the rate by. Consensus seems to be 75 basis points now. We will know by the end of this month and this is no doubt the theme for the month.

We want to congratulate S.J. The month of December and so far in January he has accumulated over £13,000 from his trading and looks set to increase his profits even more. He has spent a lot of time with Javid and worked very hard to learn everything. Well done S.J.

Forex Analysts

Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Bernanke & Trichet

The Dollar was being sold off after Bernanke's comments yesterday. The interpretation is that 2008 outlook had worsened. We may see the U.S cut the rate by 50 bp. Bernanke hardly spoke about inflation, he concentrated mainly on growth.

The Euro strengthened after Trichet's comments. The interpretation is the ECB will do what is necessary to contain inflation. Trichet spoke of inflation and growth.

The Fed implied problems in the U.S economy are getting worse. Trichet was very hawkish and implied a different direction for the Euro zone and the key to that was combatting inflation. This gave analysts a trading opportunity and so the Dollar starting selling off.

From what we have heard we should expect to see rate cuts and further weakness with the Dollar. That is the fundamentals so the technicals now have to back up the fundamentals. We will wait for the weekend for analysis on the majors and update the site with our results next week.

Have a great weekend.

Forex Analysts

Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Interest Rate Decision

It's all about the interest rate decisions today. Wait for release of this before opening any positions. We also have Bernanke and Trichet speaking so if you don't want to be involved with noise, stay out of the market.

Forex Analysts

Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Pound Dollar Channel

Good morning. We mentioned a few times (most recent here) that the GBPUSD could have further weakness. Well it has had that weakness and has continued to fall although it seems to be falling within a channel. Depending on the time frame being used, we are at a support level zone. The chart is at the bottom of this post.

The GBPJPY update shown here suggested using our entry stop loss technique to enter this trade if we have further weakness. We had been triggered into a day trade sometime this morning and are £1000 in profit with 2 lots. Hope some of you have also taken this trade. This trade was brought to our attention by Ash so we have him to thank for this.

Interest rates will be the theme of this month. Many analysts are asking for a cut between 50bp to 100bp.

It has been suggested the U.S housing market is heading for it's worse performance in 50 years. If that is the case then we should expect to see similar results in the UK and Europe shortly. As the saying goes, when the U.S sneezes the rest of the world gets a cold.

The term recession is being used a lot now and the signs of concern on the equity markets maybe appearing. An increase in bankruptcy filings, weakness in the property markets and an decrease in job creation show bearish behaviour. Keep an eye on the GDP figure and especially if it is below 3% for further signs.

If we do move in to recession times then jobs will be lost, money will be a major issue and mortgages will be defaulted on. If you are a trader (by that we mean someone who has decided to trade and has had good education) then times of recession are opportunites of wealth. While the dumb money lose consistently the smart money will take advantage of the zero sum game.

If we do hit a recession or even if times change and markets provide weakness then make sure you are well positioned as this could provide handsome profits for traders when others around us are not doing so well.

Chart courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts

Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

NFP Results

The NFP was weaker than expected which is not good for the U.S economy. Analysts are calling for a cut in interest rates and we would not be at all surprised if they get what they want. The question is how much?

While talking to a friend of ours on Friday the Pound Yen came up in conversation. We have done a partial analysis on this cross for you. We are in a support zone currently so we need to watch for a reversal or a break down. Either way, to filter out fake outs (false breakouts or traders remorse) use our entry stop loss technique.

The chart of the GBPJPY below is on a daily time frame.



Chart courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts

Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Cable Weakness

The GBPUSD has broken down below 1.9800 yesterday. It has also dropped out of the weekly channel which started in May 2006. This could be a fake out so todays news will be very important in helping us determine the direction of this pair. Like I mentioned a few weeks ago regarding the Loonie and the profit potential on that, this could also provide us with a big profit.

The Cable on weekly has broken out of the channel, it has a divergence, reversed at MOB time, RSI divergence, RTC (96.3) has been broken. However, support is not too far away at fib (as shown on chart) and again at 1.9500 (not shown on chart). Other supports you can see on the charts below. The 1.9800 zone is now a resistance level. Oil is likely to determine the GBP possible vulnerability here.

The charts below are weekly British Pound against Dollar.

Charts courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal.

Hope some of you managed to cash in some profits on the USDCAD that we called a short on yesterday.

We recieved an email today from another trader who is finding success in the markets. Hope some of you find this a motivation for 2008. Excerpts of the email below.

I did start trading 3 months ago, some trades I was wining and some losing, not doing well i made a loss of £9600, I even thought of quitting. Then I had training from you last week of November 07.

Thank you for the training. I must say that I am very, very pleased with this, It's just brilliant. For a long time I've been looking for training of sorts where the mentor says "This is what you do" First you do this, then this, then that etc, as well as showing you all the indicators and how they work.

From a loss of £9600 to 3rd Jan 08 I have made my loss back of £10200 in three weeks, the strategies taught really worked. Initially I tested the strategies on a demo account, one week later I went back to trading and produced an increased gain.

It gave me such confidence, I know for me it's still early days, but its only a matter of time before this becomes a good source of income for me.

You are a man of integrity and very professional. I was skeptical at first but have grown to trust and admire your word and work. Thank you very much.
S.J

Thank you S.J and good luck with your continued trading success.

Finally, as a reminder to you all, don't forget NFP. Figure seems to be 70k.

Have a great weekend.

Click here to download Anne's eBook.


Forex Analysts

Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Slow Start

Good morning,

The markets are a little slow to start the New Year. This is probably also due to the NFP but depending on the results of that we can start to see our normal volatility again. We have no charts to show just yet and actually wont do until Monday when we start trading with regular volume.

Something you should all be aware of is how season affect the markets. We mentioned this last January as well. Often we find that in the month of January the USD gains against the GBP but having said that the GBP quite often gains against the Dollar in December which as you know did not in December 2007. It is something to be aware of this month.

We have resumed our short stance in the USDCAD as we think it may continue the current downtrend. Our stops are not far away from this morning entry so risk is quite minimal.

Happy Trading.

Forex Analysts

Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Trading for 2008

Good morning and a very Happy New Year to you all.

Over the last couple of weeks we have had thin volume, early closing trading days as well as closed days and now they are a thing of the past........well for nearly another 12 months anyway!

The markets are opening again within the next hour for the first time this year and we will analyze the currencies during the course of the day and will share some charts tomorrow.

We will be watching Cable and Euro carefully during the coming weeks for any breakouts or breakdowns. We have already posted our Euro chart below todays post for you to view.

We have had a few emails from traders and the excerpts are below with permission.

I registred for a newsletter and I found it very useful thanks to Anne. I recommend it to everyone who is new in trading. I had 2 weeks holidays from 24 December, for the first time I was trading during the day time. I manage to earn more then 700 pounds in few days of trading.
From KB

I've been trading for just under a year and a half now and my results and consistency are getting better and better. From our last meeting I've been applying everything you showed me to the 'T' with a couple of additional things that I like to use and the 2 trades I've taken on have both been very successful. I traded short on the USDCAD where I made just over 180 pips using the BB strategy and I went short on the USDJPY using my own analysis and got a sell signal the following day on the BB strategy after the market moved down over 160 pips. I've now exited 40% and have my stop on swing high which is 160 pips from entry. Now I'll just be scaling out.

I just wanted to say I'm glad I came to see you the night before my 25th birthday as I considered it to be a great birthday present for myself. I said this to you on that day and I'm going to say it again, you are an inspiration Javid and I appreciate the time you have taken out to teach me the art of trading. Trading is now going to play a major role in me living the life of my dreams which will have a ripple effect on all the people around me.
From JS

So the New Year has started and regardless of the results of last years trading, we are all starting with a clean slate for this year. If you know an aspect of your trading needs improving then work on those areas of your trading. Be honest with yourself to identify those areas and if you make a small improvement everyday you will find you can overcome it! You have proof from two people who already have.

Write down your goals for 2008. Every successful trader we know and have had the pleasure of meeting have always had written goals. Write down your goals and that does not just mean monetary ones. If you want a new car then write down you want a new car (including specification and colour etc) and when you want it by. If you want a holiday to the Bahamas then write down when you want to go, where you want to stay, what you will do there etc. You need a plan and by doing this you are telling your subconscious you need to make a specific amount to buy a specific item by a specific date. This is far more powerful than just trying to make a profit from the markets everyday just because you want a profit. We all need goal settings so if you have not done yours for 2008 do them today!

Happy New Year and here's hoping it is a prosperous one.

Our Newsletter and eBook can be downloaded here.

Forex Analysts

Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik