Euro New Highs

More buying came in to the Euro yesterday and also since the breakout. Profit taking will take place at some point though, possibly giving a pullback and continuation pattern.

Then USDCAD is holding at support and the wick nearly tagged the extension yesterday.

GBPJPY today has entered our sell zone so watch this on Monday.

AUDNZD was 19% out yesterday so watch this for a possible reversal.

Hope you all have a great weekend.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Loonie Support Zone

The USDCAD is at the support zone. It produced a doji at the figure yesterday. It has also hit the MOB but the other MOB is slightly further below and the extension is between both MOB's.

Based on the confluene of events this could bounce and a long poisition is acceptable if you are an aggressive trader. However, if you are conservative then you want to see this produce further confluence before entering. A long position here produces a good chance of being stopped out but a very small risk.

Fundamentally the Dollar still looks weak so a long here would be going against the run of play but once again this is the opportunity only for aggressive traders with well placed stops.

A few things that could affect this pair is Bernanke, prelimanary GDP and possibly current account.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Euro Highs

The Euro has broken in to all time high teritory this morning with a breakout. This looks like the wave 5 in progress. We are quite likely to see Dollar weakness during the beginning of this year but we think the Dollar will gain strength during the second part of this year.

From the daily chart below you can see the MOB is not far away. This will be a resistance area but listen to the TTN for buying and selling hints fromthe big dogs.

Bernanke will be speaking today and New Home Sales are released later.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Rising Aussie Yen

The Australian Yen cross is at a point where it could do a breakout or reversal. Right now it is at the resistance from the previous high and also close to the MoB but more importantly the time on MoB. Interestingly the last 5 bars have been blue XTL and has broken above the 200 MA.

This is either a breakout or reversal candidate so watch for either then use our entry stop loss technique to enter the trade.

From a swing / position trading point of view, Carry, Gold & Interest Rates will play a part.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by ESignal

The Euro New Zealand Dollar from yesterday is still in the support zone.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Euro Kiwi Strong Support

The charts below shows the daily and weekly Euro New Zealand Dollar.

As you can see the weekly shows the lows at the support level and the daily at the time of writing this looks to be doing a double bottom. Based on the fact the bar is incomplete as the day has not ended this could force it's way through the support level for further weakness. Watch for a break and close below the support for a short then use our entry stop loss technique to trigger the trade or a long opportunity with a reversal candle followed by our entry stop loss technique.

Note that our indicator on the daily chart shows oversold at a strong support level.

Do not second guess this, remember to be disciplined and wait for the opportunity then filter that opportunity with our entry/stop loss technique to allow for fake outs.


Daily chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by ESignal.


Weekly chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by ESignal.

Below is the GBPUSD chart. Once again, be patient and wait for the opportunity to arise.


Daily chart courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal.

Happy B'Day to Hailey (Turkey Catchers wife) and also to Turkey Catcher himself whose B'Day is tomorrow.

Congratulations to all of you who have completed UPW.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Retail Sales

Todays Retail Sales figures were better than expected. The forescast was 0.3% and the M/M was 0.8% which gave an immediate rise to the GBP.

Next item on the agenda is the Unemployment Claims which is expected at 345,000. Unless the figure is greater than 350,000 it probabky is not worth worrying about this.

That will be it for today so really now Retails Sales is over the remaining day should be all techncal.

Good luck.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

BoE Minutes

BoE minutes, FOMC minutes and Core CPI will be eagerly awaited.

I mentioned yesterday evening on the webinar the AudCad could well head downwards today due to 21% break and as you can see from below it has done just that. My system is very easy to use and now that you can all see how easy hopefuly you all make good use of it.



Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by Esignal.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Euro Gains Overnight

We got stopped out on EURUSD yesterday at break even.

The AUDUSD is still going strong. The minutes showed a 50bp hike was considered but only 25bp went through. A resistance zone is 0.9235 region.

It will be interesting to see the BoE minutes tomorrow to see the rate decision voting.

EURJPY is at a resistance (159) at the time of writing this. Next resistance is 100 pips away. After that 162 approximately is a resistance zone.

Not that much fundamentals for the US this week but everyone will be awaiting tomorrows CPI data.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Euro Breather

The AUDUSD is still looking strong and is fighting it's way up.

The EURUSD has ht a fib breather level and is struggling this morning. It has reversed and is down about 40 pips from the open. Check the candle at the end of the day if not already in this.

THE GBPUSD also hit a fib breather and subsequently reversed today. So far this pair is down 100 pips this morning but unfortunately we did not see the set up in time so are not in it. If you are already in this trade that now is the time to manage it.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.


Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Honesty is the best Policy

We hear so many times from so many people that the US economy is not on the verge of recession. Is this really true or are is this what they want us to believe so mass panic and concern does not set in.

Personally we have to say a recession looks inevitable. Just look at the stock market selling off and Gold buying. This is your obvious clue and Gold by the way has been going up for years.

A second clue is the rate cuts we have been having. So who really is doing the panicking?

Last of all we have Greenspan saying it is more than 50% likely that an American recession will happen. Straight fron the ex horses mouth.

Now make up your own mind, do you think a recession is likely?

Consumer sentiment is out today and Trichet will be speaking.

The Australian Dollar is still looking healthy but the resistance zone has not been broken so beware of this. We know a few of you day traded this and now it is time to scale out and manage this trade.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Trichet & Bernanke

We are not opening any new positions this morning. Later today we have President Bernanke and President Trichet speaking so the markets will be awaiting their comments.

The AUDUSD still looks very interesting so watch for a potential breakout.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Lower Time Frame Cable

We received two emails asking about the analysis we performed yesterday on the GBPUSD.

Now the questions have been is their an opportunity to trade the Cable on a shorter term time frame. The anser is yes you can and but we like to trade on longer term time frames.

You will have to create support/resistance lines on the time frame you wish to use and ones above that too. Below is the basic Pound Dollar 4 hour analysis to start you off. Notice the cluster of resistance around the 200 moving average.

The news today is the BoE has said they are not going to raise interest rates in the next 2-3 months.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Sterling Weakness

The Sterling Dollar as we all know has been falling recently but have we found a support now?

On analyzing this pair we have a clear downtrend in progress. We have had a support and small reversal as a result of the fib reversal and are now doing what looks like a bearish flag. The flag is not complete so we can't be certain this is the pattern but other than 1.95 support that we mentioned we would get to if we continued our downtrend back in the beginning of January (click here to view post) we dont have much else.

So is the GBPUSD going to continue it's free fall.

Now it is going to be dependent on fundamentals and technicals. The technicals are saying yes if we break the support level but the key will be the fundamentals. Watch out for BoE Inflation Report tomorrow, we might just see this pair make a move after it's range of the last few days.



Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Aussie Dollar

The Australian Dollar has gained strength over the past few years. It seemed to be having an issue recently by fading off and has not been able to break above the 9500 mark.

What we are doing on this pair is waiting for a set up. Either dealing above the resistance or below the support will push us in to this market. More recently, it has reversed with a candle and at Tokyo open we can see some buying has taken place today.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Website Update

We hope you enjoy our new look.

Our next update will be on Monday.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Europes Rate Decision

The housing market is a very weak sector in the UK at the moment. It is widely expected the BoE will cut rates by 25bp today. The ECB on the other hand is expected to keep rates unchanged. President Trichet's press conference will be interesting to gauge where the Euro Zone is heading.

The 25bp and probably even 50bp is factored in the GBPUSD. The EURUSD however is needing some fundamentals push to it out of it's range. Stochastics would be the indicator of choice to use at the moment on this pair to accomodate for the range bound activity. A breakout with entry stop loss technique would be the trigger but until then short term trading is our focus on this pair.

So, mid day today will should be an active period.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Break Down

The daily CHFJPY (below) has reached our sell zone and is below the 200 moving average. This could be traders remorse so we have placed a stop accordingly.

A small divergence is present and stochastics crossed over tagging the overbought zone.

The 4 hour also shows divergence and we have passed fib ext 1 for the second leg.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Sterling Suppport?

The Sterling found a little support today as mentioned in the previous post but still looks very weak. This is one to be watched for possible further weakness although monthly says otherwise.

On the other hand, in a few hours we will be getting the Retail Sales and Interest Rate announcement from Australia. Based on how the economy is doing we may find they increase rates which may see further strength in the currency and especially with the crosses. The AUDJPY is one to watch and we have taken a long position with a well placed stop on this.

Buy Zone:
AUDJPY
AUDUSD
AUDCHF

Sell Zone:
USDCAD
GBPNZD - but at support level right now


Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Recession Around the Corner

Friday's NFP results certainly was not a shock but maybe a little surprise. Regardless of analysts expectations, secretly most traders would probably have been expecting a bad number but surely not that bad.

17,000 jobs were lost and without doubt recession looms over us. Rumour is the rate cut was as a result of the Fed knowing this figure and coupled with big down moves across the globe on Martin Luther King day. We should probably expect another rate cut at least and possibly two during this year to compensate for the bad results being thrown at us.

A few of you (including Turkey Catcher) made some substantial profits on Friday and well done to you. The Pound Dollar made great profits after the breakdown as shown on Friday mornings update. If you are thinking f shorting this today then just be aware that Fridays close is at a price support level and fib level. We are not saying it is going to bounce but beware of that possibility.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.

Hope you have a great trading week.

Download Anne Chapman's free ebook here.

Forex Analysts

Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Volatility Expected

Ok, the day has finally arrived and the eagerly awaited NFP is only a few hours away now. Forescast is 65,000 for this month. Remember last month we severely missed analysts expectation and the figure was only 18,000. It will be interesting to see how far off we will be this time.

The markets have been in a range and today (depending on the figure) we should see the majority of the markets breakout of their range. The 4 hour GBPUSD chart below shows possible scenarios. A breakout or breakdown is highly likely and even though technically a breakdown is more of a possibility based on Osc divergence, at times like today the fundamentals are key so ignore these technical factors. However, support / resistance will still be valid but really the most important factor is the figure.

Chart courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal.

Those interested in Advanced GET you can read more about it here.

If you have not already signed up for Anne's ebook then click here for immediate download.

Hope you all have a good weekend and look forward to next weeks trading.

Forex Analysts

Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman