Euro Pound

Good morning and welcome to another week of trading.

I was speaking with a friend of mine last night and he was telling me how he enjoys his weekends. Whenever I call him at the weekend he is generaly out with his wife and more often in a restaraunt. By contrast my weekends are normally spent at the grounds watching my favourite football team. If it wasn't for football I really would find weekends very boring and that is due to the fact the the markets are closed so I always look forward to Mondays.

The Euro Pound has got two signals today. One from the DD strategy and another from the breakout. Which you decide to take is your preference but remember to use a stop loss as always.

Fundamentaly the Euro seems much stronger than the Pound. This could be partly due to the fact we have entered into the inflation zone here in the UK.

We have a some news events out this week so shoud interesting.

Below are todays set ups on DD strategy.



Good trading.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Euro vs Dollar

We had mentioned early last year that the Euro could surpass the Dollar and that now seems to be the thoughts of economists. A good reason to perhaps consider this is not just because the Dollar is so weak but more so because the Euro has President Trichet behind it and the Dollar has Bernanke and without any doubt if you were to choose a corner you would have to choose Trichet.

We are not suggesting the Euro will take over next month or even next year but the future does look bright for the Euro. Realistically it maybe a decade before this could happen but it seems like it is now more likely than it was in 2001.

On topic of the Euro we can still see we are holding at the fib level since yesterday so we are still looking for a breakout. Those using our DD strategy will still be in this with a very good profit in the last couple of days but with a tight stop now.

Have a great weekend.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Euro Fib Reversal Level

The Euro Dollar has reached the fib reversal level and reversed. Those of you who have had one to one training with us will be familiar with this level so hope you all managed your trades prior to this.

Now we need to wait for a breakout to occur before a continuation should be considered.


Chart courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Swissy takes a breather

The USDCHF had a convergence and promptly bounced. The bounce has closed at breather level 1 but could still continue to level 2. A candle reversal in addition to our entry stop loss technique would trigger a continuation.

XTL is still bearish and Ellipse has not been breached and the trend is down.


Chart courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal.


Good trading.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Trending Up

Hope you all had a great Easter break.

Not sure if the Euro Dollar has found support here as it is too soon after the hoidays to determine if the markets are back to normality. Looking at the chart below we can see 0.382 has been tagged after hitting the resistance at 2.618 ext, 1.00 two legged ext and the big figure. Stochastics is now oversold and hooked up and XTL is still bullish.

At the time of writing (17.11) we are almost in the buy zone.


Chart courtesy of Advanced GET. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Euro Support

For those of you who attended the webinar, you may recall where we said Euro Dollar would find resistance. That is shown on the chart as the 2 legged extension and we hit it almost precisely before retracing. This retracement seems like it is a breather and the levels of support are shown on the chart. If support levels are breached then this chart will need to be analyzed again. XTL is still bullish but MACD is showing divergence.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.

Next update will be Tuesday 25th March.

Happy holidays.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

BoE Minutes

After two turbulent days is the market giving any idea as to where it is heading?

The Fed are depserate to prevent a recssion. Yesterday they cut the rates by 75bp and on March 17th we suggested a rate cut of perhaps 1% might help them. So they didnt cut by 1% but they did bring a serious offer to the table. Only thing is the recession has already started and no one wants to admit it.

The BoE minutes will be highly anticipated.

Ok, so we dont know where the market is heading but it seems like business as usual. The Dollar is falling on speculation that the housing slump is going to increase credit market losses.

It seems highly likely the UK will be cutting interest rates in the future irrespective of BoE minutes today which shows forecasts 8-1 vote to keep the 5.25% rate.

Just remember when the governing bodies admit we are in a recession you will already know it.

Good trading.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Support the Dollar Yen

The Dollar has been taking a real beating over the past year and if you follow the old adage "the trend is your friend" then there is no reason to assume anything will change anytime soon.

Although we are not about to go against this down trend and take a long position we should all be aware of the support level from 1994. We have bounced from it so far but if we BAC below it then use our entry stop loss technique for entering this trade for a continuation. The natural behaviour though is to have a breather before a continuation (going on the basis there is a continuation). Those of you we have trained will know where those breather levels are. Please note this is all based on technicals and right now the fundamentals look very bleak.

The chart below is weekly USDJPY.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Fed Needs To Cut Rates

Good morning. Hope you are all looking forward to another trading week.

The chart for the day is the Aussie Swissy and we have taken a short position on this cross based on our trading system. We have locked in profits already and are now managing the trade.

So what are the Fed going to do next? Everything they seemed to do has not really helped so now they really need to jolt the market. It certainly would not be a shock if they drop the rates again (which seems inevitable) but this time they will probably need to leave their mark so a 1 % rate cut may help.


Chart courtesy of Metastock. Data provided by Reuters.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & javid Shaik

MOB Ahead

The Euro Canadian Dollar looks to have broken out a few days ago but the MOB is not to far ahead. Divergence longer term and shorter term should be noted. The weekly has similar characteristics.

The upside is this currency is well in to our buy zone so from a price perspective this looks good for a continuation. If we b&c below 1.5000 then further weakness maybe seen.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Aussie Pullback

The AUDUSD is slightly short of the MOB but has produced a reversal. In order for this to be a continuation we need to see it abide by the breather rules as shown on chart. After that we need to see a break out. At this stage we can use our entry stop loss technique to trigger us in to the trade and the next major resistance will be the big figure. The extension is approximately 1.0120.

The chart shows MACD divergence prior to the retracement. Should the breather continue then the Ellipse is the next level.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Inflation Concerns

Inflation seems to be a global issue at present and certainly in China. Recession fears in the US and UK are on the rise. Oil has risen to over $107.

All the above are elements of a turn around in market conditions.

The Euro reversed from 1.55 as we mentioned it would be resistance previously.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Recession Concerns

The Cable from last week continues it's uptrend with a breakout. There is still a chance of a sharp reversal based on resistance immediately above the price at the time of writing this but managing this trade will protect profits from that possible scenario.

The Euro Dollar 1 hour chart below shows potential areas of breakouts. A breakout in either direction will be met with the MOB and we will just have to see if that is strong enough to halt the momentum.

Now, hopefully the bad numbers on NFP were not a shock to you. Based on previous it was just a continuation trend. Now the US Fed have got some worrying months ahead and as we have already said ealier this year, the Fed will cut the rates even further. It seems they will have to in order to fight the bad job numbers and ever increasing recession concerns.

View chart here

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Cable breaks through

It seems the triple bottom may have aided the Cable in breaking through the range yesterday. Our previous post showed the chart with resistance and MOB levels. At present the price is sill below the MOB and moving average so we still want to see a break of that then apply the entry stop loss technique.

NFP is expected at 25k. Some what more realistic than last months analysts forecasts. Unemployment rate at 5%.

Have a great weekend.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Bullish Aussie

The Aussie continues it's uptrend yesterday. On further analysis we can see from the chart below there could be some obstacles ahead.

We have the MOB, time line, two leged extension and also the figure in proximity. All these factors should be considered before entering a long position on this. If we have a breakout then this would become more appealing.

Watch the fib reversal area and see if the market breaks or reverses in that zone.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by ESignal.


Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Ranging Currencies

The Euro may have a pullback and the 1.5000 zone will be a good support level.

UK PMI, Beige Book and US ISM are all out so ensure you take the appropriate action.

The GBPUSD breather level prior to the breakout level should not close lower than the 1.9675 zone for a continuation pattern.

We may find some ranging in the markets prior to NFP which is quite common.

Forex Analysts

Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik

Cable Breaking Out?

For pattern traders the Cable has produced a double/triple bottom (some consider it double bottom while others consider it triple bottom). Regardless of what it is, I think we can all agree it looks very much like a reversal pattern.

Since the reversal pattern we have been heading upward and now have reached a resistance. This is where we want to see if we have a breakout. If we do breakout of this congestion then we could set our sights higher but beware of the MOB as shown on the chart. Breaking the MOB the next level of tough resistance zone is 2.0250.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.

Forex Analysts
Javid Shaik & Anne Chapman

Euro Pound Reversal?

The EURGBP is beginning to diverge across multiple time frames. The weekly, daily, 4 hour and 1 hour all show divergence and the previous daily candle has a reversal candle.

The MOB has been hit and we are close to the figure.

We have placed a short on this with our stop a few pips above the doji. At the time of writing this we are 23 pips in the profit zone.

The daily Euro Pound shows the divergence and MOB. Support is at the previous resistance (red line).


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.

The Euro Dollar resistance could come in the form of a trendline resistance or MOB or the plain and simple figure. The daily chart below shows that information.


Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by Esignal.

Forex Analysts
Anne Chapman & Javid Shaik