NZDCAD H&S

Good Afternoon Dynamic Traders

I hope you all enjoyed your weekend and are gearing up for the festive season. It will be interesting to see how the markets behave this coming month.

The NZDCAD daily chart is showing us a H&S formation. Some of the more experienced or aggressive traders, may well have entered this trade on the BOB of the neckline and gained some profits - which of course would have been against the current up trend. The chart is at quite an interesting point now. Price has also broken and closed below the S/R level. MACD is showing strength in the down move and we also had previous divergence. So signals are suggesting price may well continue down.

But we have this support cluster very close below so a down move may be short lived. A possible trend trading opportunity may arise should price find support at this VI, RN, Fib level and continue up to recommence the trend. Alternatively, price may break in which case an opportunity to short maybe on the cards.
















Expect some volatility this week with NFP news and as always please carry out your own analysis.

Great trading!
Sonia Molina

Non Farm Payroll Week

Good Day Dynamic Traders,

Hope you are having a good weekend. The Christmas rush has started and it seems the best place to be is indoors (possibly shopping online) if you wish to avoid the queues and traffic.

The GBPCHF has continued down and produced very nice profits. In addition for those that took the USDJPY trade should also have made a some tidy profits.

Below is the chart for the Swissy. The daily shows that price has been steadily moving in a downward direction within a channel and has now tagged the upper trendline with a hanging man. The normal assumption would be to think that price will now move back down after the small pullback. This is where a look at the weekly chart (below) is required.














Price has tagged a previous support and a Fib reversal area before bouncing up (as seen on the lower time frames). In addition price is at a crucial RN so good trade management is quite key here. The sellers may well be able to dominate the market and move the price further down but given all the confluences it may not be as simple.















Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

http://www.fxcps.co.uk/blog
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Loonie FBO

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

Unfortunately it's just a quick update from me today. The markets this morning have been quite volatile across some currencies and the pattern I'm seeing is after a period of consolidation we're seeing price attempt previous highs and lows but then retreating, possibly giving us FBO's.

The AUDJPY mentioned on Monday has broken down confirming the 123786 but is now contending with the VI support. Next week will be very interesting.

The Loonie after it's BOB of the squeeze has in fact bounced back up into the comfort of the triangle and continues up with strength this morning. Dynamic traders using ESLT would have been protected from being triggered on this FBO. So what next? The indicators are not tellling us much and with the ranging/undecided nature of this pair at the moment I'm going to wait for some definitive direction.

Have a great weekend all. At a time when the markets are showing some uncertainty, it's important to analyse your HTF's to get a big brother perspective.

Great trading!
Sonia Molina

Loonie BOB

Good Afternoon Dynamic Traders

Yesterday we saw some good movement on the markets - a pre Thanksgiving frenzy! SGD broke the low and is retesting the S as R so far today. There is always a chance of a FBO so ESLT would be a good tool for entry. EURGBP today has picked up strength and is attempting a BOB of the R. Let's see how the pair close tonight.

Back to the Loonie, last mentioned on Nov 20th, price has finally broken the squeeze down. Remember we have the possible 123786 chart pattern, the friendly trend in our favour and also ST giving us a false signal. Certainly the confluences suggest price should continue down but analysing the chart further suggests price may have a bumpy ride.
















First price needs to contend with the S/R zone which is intimidating price action. Should it successfully break this zone, bear in mind we're only a couple of hundred pips away from a major RN. Having said that we know good trends consistently break support levels and RN's. Of course price could find this all too difficult to tackle and bounce up.

This is a great example of making a judgment call on a trade. Despite reasons to not enter a trade it's important to gather your confluences, stack up the odds and make a decision on a trade in accordance with your TP and your rules. Please carry out your own analysis.

Here's to confident and emotion-free trading!
Sonia Molina

ZAR Head and Shoulder?

Good Day Dynamic Traders,

Lots of movement in the markets today, the Euro has broken through the strong RN. The USDJPY mentioned on last night's blog has broken through the support and provided us with a BOB. Will this continue or was it just a FBO?

The Zar posted below appears to be displaying a head and shoulders formation. Price has just dipped below the neckline. However, further confirmation is required for me to enter the trade. The conservative traders may wait for the break of the low or for price to retest the neckline a second time before it continues south with the trend.













Happy Thanksgiving/Holidays for those of you celebrating it.

Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

EURGBP update

Morning Dynamic Traders

I wanted to check in on the EURGBP price action today, which I've been keeping an eye on the past couple of weeks for a possible continuation to the upside.

The Daily chart confirms that we did indeed see a BOB of the TL but as you can see price has very quickly been stopped in its tracks with the R level above. Yesterday price tagged the R and gave us an indecision candle. But the RSI has crossed above 50 - could this mean price may pick up strength?
















Drilling down into the 4 hour has thrown some interesting light on the situation. Price has tested this R level three times now, giving us a possible TT. We can see price is hovering around the VI and MACD is diverging. So what next?
















Should the TT play out we may well see price head down - but we need that confirmation with a BOB of the low. The Daily chart still suggests we're in an uptrend so price could fight this defying R and continue up to resume it's trend. But with the 4 hr showing us possible signs of another pullback/reversal let's wait and see what happens. As always please carry out your own analysis.

Here's to great trading!
Sonia Molina

USDJPY

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Hope you are all having a good week. The currency markets have been a little slow lately (particularly for the swing trader) while the buyers and sellers make up their minds.

The GBPCHF has been producing some nice profits over the last few trading days.

Today's chart for discussion is the USDJPY. Price has been in a downtrend albeit with deep pullbacks. It has now arrived at a previous support which is also at a RN and a Fib reversal level. All the signs are indicating towards a bounce or pullback in the short term. If this happens there may be opportunity to enter once the trend resumes, therefore one to put on the watchlist.














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

SGD possible continuation

Good Afternoon Dynamic Traders

The SGD was mentioned throughout Octobers blogs but has been laying low recently with no real action. The low of mid-October wasn't broken with any real volume and we've seen price continue to range. We now have a potential BOB on the horizon, preferably with the trend for a continuation trade. However trends do at some point come to an end, so we shouldn't have any expectation as to what the market will do, as it could very well bounce up. Price is hovering at a previous resistance level which is now turned support. The 1.38 level also adds to the strength of this support. We can see the daily candles are getting smaller and smaller as price is squeezed between the TL and S.














Analyse the chart and your favourite indicators, check in on HTF's and gather the odds so you're ready to take appropriate action once the market makes its move. In the meantime be patient.

Here's to great trading!
Sonia Molina

AUDJPY - what next?

Good Morning Traders

Hope you all had a great weekend and are ready for another week of dynamic trading.

The AUDJPY has been in an up trend since Feb 09 and admittedly it's had some sizable breathers but overall the trend direction is up - the VI confirms that for us with it pointing upwards.

As you can see, price is being propped up by the support of the TL and I'm sure the strength of the VI below is also playing its part. The ST is giving up false bars on top and overall the uptrend still looks good. Now looking more closely at the price action, there is a possibility of a 123786, but this won't be confirmed until we have a BOB of the 2. But price has a number of barriers to break should it play out this chart pattern - we have the TL, VI, RN and a fib breather level all huddled together acting as a strong support. So caution should definitely be taken on any reversal trades.

Scenario 1: we could see the 123786 take form and see price break down.

Scenario 2: we see price bounce up and try to continue with it's current trend. Depending on your trading style, a trend trading entry could be taken soon or to play it safe await a BOB of the high.

As of this morning buyers are taking lead, but let's keep a watchful eye on this pair.

Have a great trading day.
Sonia Molina

EURGBP and USDCAD update

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

The EURGBP mentioned throughout this week, has in fact found support at the strong cluster area and today price is testing the TL resistance. Could this be the end of the pullback and the start of price resuming it's current uptrend? Price still has some way to go before breaching the previous high so anything could happen between now and then, especially as we have a couple of R levels to contend with. However, the odds for a continuation up are still in our favour. My preference is to await a BOB of the next R level before entering.

















USDCAD is forcing price into a squeeze and at this point the smart thing to do is stand aside and wait for price to decide its course. We do have the possible 123786 pattern and coupling this with the trend direction odds are in our favour for a continuation south. But let's watch and wait patiently before taking any action.

















Have a wonderful weekend. Despite the grey weather outside, have fun! An attitude of gratitude will always shower your life with lots of colour.

Here's to great trading!
Sonia Molina

GBPCHF update

Good Day Dynamic Traders,

I thought I would do a quick update on the GBPCHF today as I see some changes. Price has reached a Fib breather level and reacted with a bearish engulfing candle. We can also see MACD divergence. It will be interesting to see if price will continue to pullback to provide a short opportunity.














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

EURGBP bullish day

Good Evening Dynamic Traders

The EURGBP has bounced up today giving us a bullish engulfing candle at a key support level. An additional confluence to add to the support cluster was the TL support - you may have encountered this when doing your own analysis. All these elements proved too strong for price today resulting in a significant move for the bulls.

Depending on your trading appetite, an appropriate strategy can be chosen from your dynamic toolbox for entry - there are multiple confluences in favour of a trend continuation helping us to strengthen our trading odds. However, note the TL and resistance level price will have to face should it wish to continue up to resume it's trend. So be prepared for some possible resistance.
















Here's to great trading!
Sonia Molina

Nearly Midweek

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

The previously mentioned AUD has not done much since the last post despite news items. The bars are fairly small and there appears to be some indecision going on. The best thing to do here is to wait and watch before taking any action.

The GBPCHF pair has been through the consolidation and has provided us with a breakout. Price is now heading upwards towards the VI and previous resistance. It will be interesting to see if it makes it to the next level of resistance or whether today was just traders remorse and price will start continuing the trend. Personally, I don't have enough signals to for entry and going long means going against the recent trend so I will wait aside for price to tell me more.














The GBPCAD pair is showing signs of a squeeze. Having bounced off the VI twice price is trying to test it a third time, will we have a triple top in a downtrend? Note the other confluences that price will be facing close to the VI, this should give you good signals if you are patient.














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

Loonie 123786?

Good Evening Traders

The EURAUD seems to have found some support at the RN/support level as price has been bouncing up and down today. This is common when price is faced with a psychological hurdle such as a RN - at least until either the bulls or bears take charge.

The EURGBP has continued south today with price almost tagging the VI. Now it's going to be really interesting to watch - will price bounce up at this strong support cluster to resume it's trend or will it continue with it's current bearish move? All eyes on this pair.

I wanted to talk about the Loonie this evening. Although over the past few months price has done a deeper pullback than I would have liked and the recent consolidation lasted some time, for me it's still one to keep an eye on.

I last wrote about this pair on Oct 21, where price has since continued to rally giving us what maybe a possible 123786. In an existing downtrend, this could only be a good thing for a continuation with the trend. Of course this pattern won't be confirmed until we see that BOB of the low, which is sitting in a fuzzy S/R zone. If price drops clear of this area we may well see price head south.














As always please carry out your own analysis and remember - don't ever second guess the market. No matter how much you think you might know a particular currency, nothing is definite in trading! Patience is a virtue.

Here's to SM trading!
Sonia Molina

EURGBP nearing support

Good Evening Dynamic Traders

I hope you all had an enjoyable weekend and are well prepared for a successful week of trading.

The EURAUD as mentioned on the blogs from last week, ended the week with a BOB of the low and appears to be continuing with the down trend. Caution should be taken however, as we're bang on the RN, which has previously acted as a support level. In fact today's candle may end as a doji, suggesting market indecision whilst the buyers and sellers fight it out.

The EURGBP is another pair worth putting on your watchlist. Since around Aug this pair has been rallying nicely. Price then hit a peak in Oct and headed south. This may in fact be the expected breather after it's big move up. Price has been sitting comfortably around a fib breather level for the past couple of weeks and may be the bullish flag we'd like to see for a possible continuation to the upside. Hovering below price we have a support cluster which could be the springboard price needs to return to it's trend. Also note the MACD convergence.

















Carry out your analysis and put the odds in favour. Certainly one to keep an eye on should price bounce up for a trend trading execution.

Great trading!
Sonia Molina

EURAUD Indecision

Good Evening Dynamic Traders

EURAUD has produced an indecision candle so far today. Price has tested the low and attempted to break the triangle, but is failing. What we have is the strong figure below, obviously proving to be a strong psychological barrier for price today.

We know in a good down trend, support levels are continuously broken, but we also know that trends do eventually come to an end and either consolidate before it's next move or takes a new direction. So will the 1.60 level halt price in it's current trend and reverse, or will price simply lose steam for a little while and then muster it's bearish strength to smash through this RN hurdle?

















Patience and confirmation of a definitive move is certainly what's needed for an SM trade with this pair. As always please carry out your own analysis and judgment on this trade.

Have a good evening. Great trading!

Sonia Molina

AUD - awaiting breakout

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Hope you are all having a great week. The GBPCHF mentioned last week is showing some signs of a possible break away from consolidation with a big bearish bar for today. It has broken through the most recent trendline and is heading back south.

The AUD chart below shows price retesting the previous resistance level. Whilst being in close proximity to a RN and also a display of indecision candles is not promising, given the trend, the smart money will wait until a break and then step in to reap the rewards.

Note the Euro and Swissy are doing very similar things and so worth putting on your watchlist.














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

EURAUD price squeeze

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

Hope you're all well and had a successful couple of weeks on the markets. It's good to be back although the Arctic conditions here in London has been a bit of a shock!

It seems the markets have been a little unsure of late and there have been some pullbacks and breathers across some currencies. So it may well have been a good time to be away.

Below is the EURAUD daily chart. I've chosen this one today to highlight the chart pattern we have forming. You can clearly see the triangle formation and inevitably price will create a BOB - either continuing with the friendly trend or bouncing up or even possibly reversing.
















We can gather from the chart that price has been in a very healthy downtrend, without any deep pullbacks. The most recent breather has behaved perfectly, tagging the 50 fib with some nice indecision candles. We have the TL acting as R and the trend in our favour. However price is encountering a strong support level which is also in proximity to the figure - so how will price react?

As SM traders we'll wait to see what the market will do and then take the appropriate action. Be impartial and don't have any expectations of what the market may hand out.

Have a great trading day!

Sonia

GBPCHF breather

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Below is the chart for the GBPCHF pair which has been in a recent downtrend. A pullback has been taking place and price has hit a Fib breather level. The last few candles seem a little suspect in terms of indecision with large wicks and smaller bodies which may indicate a change. One to put on the watchlist for entry opportunity.













I won't be posting any new set up's tomorrow given it is NFP/volatility on Friday.


Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

Weekly update

EURGBP mentioned on Wednesday's post has moved a little further south, no real indications of a change in trend or immediate pullback.

EURO
The trendline support has so far held the price on the north side. Not much to report on this one apart from wait and see, further potential entries may be available once price decides what to do.

AUDCAD
This pair did a 1 to 1 and general signs still look bullish although a short term pullback may be witnessed.

EURJPY
The EURJPY pair did not provide us with a break out however, it did breakdown and has moved some 600 pips south. It is now at the value index where it may find support and bounce back or the sellers may be more dominant and push price down further.

Swissy
The Swissy did a pullback as per the blog and moved up a couple of hundred pips. The trend is down so one would expect that may resume, however it has not yet been confirmed. Pause until you get the right signals to re-enter.

As the markets are making up their mind we may see some good set ups coming up in the next days. However, do note that Friday is NFP so the activity may be more unusual rather than the trend.

Good Trading!
Bijal Shah