Friday, April 30, 2010
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Yesterday Spain was downgraded by the S&P and yet the Euro stood firm.
Upon closer examination of the Euro Dollar, we can see slow and continuous weakness progressing but not at the level we perhaps would have expected considering the Euro zone has been dishing out bad news recently. Our nearest zone of support is at 1.30 then 1.29 so expectation would be to see weak follow through to these levels at some point.
Currently we are not oversold so there is more room for weakness possible and VI is negative. In addition, there seems to be strength is the trend forming slowly. However, if we bounce from here then resistance will be met at the 1.33 and 1.35 levels. If any bounce fails to clear these levels then a range or a countinuation down can ensue. Either way, Dynamic Trader members will know how to enter this trade with our entry techniques and strategies.
The GBPUSD on the other hand is not showing much strength at the moment but this could change. However, at the moment we might be in a ranging enviroment so the safe bet is to stay clear of this pair until we have a set up. Again, Dynamic Traders will know how to enter this trade and when the right time is.
USDCAD is currently being supported by the figure. If we clear this point then we must see a continuation but as all Dynamic Traders know very well, do not second guess and be patient for the entry.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
GBPAUD weakens & USDSGD update
I've decided to update on GBPAUD as the 'Great British Pound' seems to be losing it's greatness today! There's been no real momentum in price recently due to the post-big move consolidation. But we may see a TL bob today presenting the more aggressive trader a possible short entry. MACD divergence is also present as an additional confluence. Do carry out your own analysis to see what other confluences may be present.
Of course price needs to contend with the support level and RN below, so my preference is a bob of this area for a continuation with the downtrend. I'll leave this one with you to decide what fits with your trading style.
USDSGD saw a very bullish day for price yesterday followed by another bullish morning - my stop was far enough to keep me in the trade. The bears seem to be taking back control this afternoon, hammering price down. How will the day end? Should we see a reversal candle this could well suggest the end of the current breather. We may even have a 123 top formation giving us yet another confluence for a continuation with the downtrend.
Markets have definitely been quite choppy this week, with profits coming in then being taken away - but we shouldn't concern ourselves with any of that. Focus on price, focus on your management and focus on staying disciplined.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Monday update & CADJPY revisited
I hope you all enjoyed the glorious weather this weekend! ... and still made time for your weekly trading preparation.
USDSGD mentioned last week has been triggered for a short based on MOBO. Inevitably there was some profit taking after the big bearish candle but it's now continuing to weaken.
My EUR related trades are continuing to weaken today locking in further profits.
I wrote about CADJPY on 1 April - it's been on my watchlist to revist once there was a pullback and signals for a continuation. But the question for me yesterday was 'Is this a high probability trade?' The answer is no, despite the recent bullish flag and reversal candle.
1. Trend: I knew the trend wasn't the strongest - you can see its zig zaggy nature and although it's gained some momentum recently, it's not a strong uptrend.
2. S/R zone: Above price is as an S/R zone and my T1 would be in the midst of this, so not a good set up.
3. RN: There's a major RN soon after the S/R zone.
A lesson for me on this chart and analysis is that a few weeks ago, I saw what I wanted to see without carefully considering the possible physical and psychological resistance areas. I'm glad I was patient as I now have a different feeling about the trade. Much like the AUDJPY chart mentioned last week, the weekly is also fast approaching a R cluster.
My trading personality is pretty conservative, so the more aggressive traders out there may have a different view. Goes without saying, but do carry out your analysis and make your own judgement.
So as the dragons would say, "I'm out". There are better trades out there.
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Friday, April 23, 2010
EURCAD trend continuation
It's almost the end of another trading week. Trends seem to be continuing, much like the sun in London right now! Let's hope both are here to stay for some time yet.
EURCAD is one of those great trends that seems to be continuing south. I hope many of you have profited from the friendly trend ride. I'm currently managing two RF positions on this pair (one hit T5, the other T3) and awaiting entry for another possible short. However, due to the key support level price is currently at, my preference is a confirmed BOB before entering.
Yes we have a RN close below, but it hasn't proven to be a S/R level previously. Confluences as they stand still favour a short - price is channelling down, it's below the VI and major figure and ST is forming a new false bar. Of course price could find the current support level/looming RN too strong to break and bounce up. But you have to be in it to win in! You just have to decide what you're prepared to pay in order to find out.
In any case, this chart is a great example of trend trading and keeping it all simple!
Enjoy the weekend. It's the London Marathon on Sunday and I'll be going down to show my support .. it's so inspiring seeing all kinds of people from different backgrounds, ages and abilities making it happen! Makes you realise there are no limits to what you can do!
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Thursday, April 22, 2010
We covered many opportunities on the last members only webinar and some of them have entered us into trades. Below I have listed some recent positions we have open.
The above positions are currently running 1200 pips and being managed accordingly. We also have orders yet to open on other positions which have yet to trigger.
Chart courtesy of Advanced Get. Data provided by eSignal.
We had another Power Bar on GBPCHF today which provided another good profit today.
We are intrested in GBPCAD and have it on our watchlist. As per John's forex update, we can see Get Stochastics is showing strength down so we are waiting for the right set up prior to the entry.
See you on the next members only webinar.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
AUDJPY - what next for price?
Hope you're enjoying the trading week so far. Yesterday saw some good movement on the markets - i hope you've managed to lock in some more profits and are remaining disciplined.
As mentioned on Zaheers blog post at fxcps.eu, I also had the CADCHF on my watchlist and have now been triggered into a long trade based on MOBO. Odds favoured a continuation with the uptrend, so let's now leave the markets to do what it's going to do and simply manage the trade accordingly.
I wanted to discuss the AUDJPY chart today. Looking at the weekly chart it's at a very significant point facing a cluster of resistances. We're in no position to second guess, but what we can see is price is faced with a very strong resistance, coupled with MACD divegence. Price could do three things: breakout and continue with the current trend, breakdown and reverse or consolidate.
Let's check out the daily chat for any further insights.
Admittedly it's not the best looking chart - there's been a lot of sideways action with deep pullbacks. Price is stuck in a S/R zone at the moment and needs to decide it's direction. On Monday price produced an indecision candle pushing price up yesterday with some rigour.
So what next? Price may breach the high and continue with its current upward nature - but remember the critical point it's at on the weekly timeframe - we also have daily divergence. Certainly a reversal could happen. A breakout of the weekly VI would be my preference before I consider a long on this pair. Should it reverse I would await a BOB of the VI.
As always please carry out your own analysis. Find out more about the Trading Room Webinars here.
Monday, April 19, 2010
I hope you all had a great trading week and an enjoyable weekend. I spent time last week reviewing my trading, TP, strategies and goals. Taking time out of the markets can be a really good exercise and I'm certainly feeling refreshed and ready for trading once again. Seems last week may have been a good time to be off the markets as many currencies are consolidating. Always a good sign, as this usually means price is preparing for its next move.
I was stopped out of my AUDNZD trade last week. It seems price did a FBO and has simply continued in a range. Now, what have i learnt from this trade? I'm happy with the confluences that I had entered this trade on and odds still favour a long - nothing's changed there. My stop may have been a little tight - but that's the nature of mechanical trading and sticking to your rules. This pair is still on the watchlist for a BOB of the high.
I hope USDSGD is also featuring on your watchlist. Last Wednesday saw price plummet almost 200 pips providing us a positive signal for continued weakness. Of course after a big move down price has decided to take a breather - we just don't know how deep the pullback will be. Price recently broke the H&S neckline, so there's always the chance of a retest. For a short entry I'll be waiting for a breach of the new low - MOBO could be used if the right signals/confluences are present.
Note, there are a number of high impact news items due on the $ this week, so bear this in mind when placing orders.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Back to the markets
I have been away due to commitments since the beginning of the week and today getting back into the marlets.
The USDCAD is creeping below the big figure which could be traders remorse and price over shooting the mark temporarily or it could be a sustained down trend offering a continuation to the 0.9000 region. The two legged extension shows support at 1.618 and 1.0000 so it will be interesting to see what this pair decides to do. Either way, this will be worthwhile for members adding this to the watchlist and waiting for a set up using our trading tools and strategies.
USDSGD has taken a big hit today and dropped 160 pips at the time of this update and also overshot the support level but the day has not ended so watch this for a reversal. The head and shoulders formation discussed previously on the members trading room webinars provided a set up for a short trade which I know some pattern traders will have enjoyed due to the clarity of this.
I would like all members to read this mornings update and ensure you follow the points mentioned if you have not already done so.
Good dynamic trading.