AUDCAD - will bears or bulls win?

Morning Dynamic Traders

Another start of a new trading week! I hope you all had time over the weekend to analyse your trades, analyse the markets and make some informed and confident trade decisions.

Below is the AUDCAD daily chart. This pair offered very profitable trades throughout 2009 for the trend traders. You can see price hit a strong R level in Nov 2009, did a FBO and then plummeted some 700 pips to end the year. Price has really just been consolidating ever since, which is why it's hasn't featured on the watchlist for some time.














We now have this triangle/squeeze formation.

Remember - the overall trend is still up, so the preference is for a long opportunity. But, a reversal is also a real possibility. The bears and bulls are fighting it out - and this is confirmed with the array of indecision candles of late and price also hugging the VI. So there's definitely market indecision.

So what next? Well, this is where the patience is needed. Price inevitably has to make a move - either UP, DOWN or an uneventful SIDEWAYS action. I don't have any expectation as to what price will do, and to be honest I'm indifferent. I'm just waiting patiently for price to make its move and then will use the appropriate strategy from my bag of trading tools.

Abundant Trading!
Sonia Molina

Weekly update

EURGBP mentioned on Wednesday's post has moved a little further south, no real indications of a change in trend or immediate pullback.

EURO
The trendline support has so far held the price on the north side. Not much to report on this one apart from wait and see, further potential entries may be available once price decides what to do.

AUDCAD
This pair did a 1 to 1 and general signs still look bullish although a short term pullback may be witnessed.

EURJPY
The EURJPY pair did not provide us with a break out however, it did breakdown and has moved some 600 pips south. It is now at the value index where it may find support and bounce back or the sellers may be more dominant and push price down further.

Swissy
The Swissy did a pullback as per the blog and moved up a couple of hundred pips. The trend is down so one would expect that may resume, however it has not yet been confirmed. Pause until you get the right signals to re-enter.

As the markets are making up their mind we may see some good set ups coming up in the next days. However, do note that Friday is NFP so the activity may be more unusual rather than the trend.

Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

Set ups for the week

Dear Dynamic Traders,

Hope you are enjoying your weekend. The markets have been very generous of late particularly for those following the trend. The AUDCAD mentioned early last week continued to rally and produce nice profits. It is however approaching a strong resistance level (as pictured below in the weekly chart) and a RN. As the trend is up there is nothing stopping it from continuing to rally, though a pullback may be witnessed and therefore good trade management is required for profit preservation.














EURJPY

The EURJPY has been in a form of consolidation for a while as can be witnessed from the chart below. Price has pushed through the value index and gained some momentum. It is now contemplating a previous resistance. If it manages to successfully break through a good long opportunity presents itself with a possible ESLT entry.














USDCHF/Swissy

The Swissy has been in a downtrend for a while as per the weekly chart below. Again with this chart price is tackling a previous support and a significant RN. If the sellers outweigh the buyers the trend will continue. Its a good time to tighten the stops to preserve profits or get ready for another opportunity to enter if price successfully tackles the upcoming obstacles.














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

AUDCAD opportunity

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

The Euro 123886 failed last week after a 200 ish pip retreat, the buyers were strong in the market and price made further bullish moves. Price is now approaching the 1.50 mark and previous resistance confidently but will the buyers outweigh the sellers again?

Crude oil has also been very bullish. At the time of posting last, price was at 7400 and is now over 400 pips higher. Well done to those who took the trade.

Below is the daily chart for the AUDCAD. Price is toying with a previous resistance, a RN and a possible DT if it fails to break through. If however, the bulls win the game, we will have a BOB and an opportunity to apply ESLT to enter a trade with the trend. One word of caution I would like to add is that a glance at the weekly chart is required as price is in very close proximity to a Fib reversal level.














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

AUDCAD breaks high

Morning Dynamic Traders

It's already Friday and nearing the end of another trading week! I hope you've all captured good profits from what the markets had to offer.

This morning is the AUDCAD chart, which was the very first blog I had posted on 10 Sept. Price continued upwards and yesterday we welcomed the BOB. As of this morning price is still continuing up with strength. We have the 9500 mark right above which may or may not act as some kind of resistance. Previous RN's haven't proved to be too much of a problem for this chart. But as with all strong moves, we should expect a breather at some point, so we may well see a retest of R as S before a possible continuation.













Remember to check in on the weekly chart too. As written previously, we were contending with a S/R zone - will the week end with a breakout?

For now there seems to be continued strength in this pair. We do have a significant figure not too far off, so we may still see some strength in price before a pullback. As always do carry out your own analysis.

Take the weekend to analyse your trades - there is something to learn from every one of them! As a wise man once said 'If you're not growing you're dying'.

Wishing you all a wonderful weekend.

Sonia Molina

Breakout on Gold

Dear Dynamic Traders,

What a momentous day, the price of Gold has broken through a 1000 and is looking like it will hold for at least today! It has not yet made a new high but is not far from the price of 1034 which is the high that was created in March 2008. Usually the strengthening of Gold is synonymous with a weakening dollar and this can be witnessed perfectly well with the Euro chart. The Pound however is still consolidating and not showing typical signs yet.

The appropriate filters should be applied for entry into this position. The conservative traders may wait for the previous high to be broken before entering. Well done to those that are already in the trade and have scooped up some profits.














The second chart for this evening is the AUDCAD. This has recently being rallying nicely and has produced some nice profits. We saw a bearish engulfing candle yesterday and price had recently got close to the previous high and close to the RN. To trade with the trend we want to wait for the resistance to be broken and the signs are not quite obvious yet. In addition there are many news items being released this week which will likely affect the price action. A good one to put on the watchlist should a breakout occur.













Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

Watchful eye on AUD/CAD

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

Before I even begin my contributions to this website I would like to thank Javid and Anne for allowing me this wonderful opportunity. Having been an avid reader of the blogs for the past year, it’s still hard to believe I’m actually here! Trading and most definitely becoming a contributor to this site was something I never would have dreamed possible. But it is.. with sheer determination, commitment and discipline anything is.

I would also like to say a very special thanks to Ash & Bijal who have helped and mentored me so much on this incredible journey. You’re both a true inspiration and I only hope to follow in your footsteps and give something back by helping readers through the blogs.

And not to forget my fellow bloggers, thank you for your commitment with writing these blogs with such commitment and enthusiasm. They’ve really helped me to advance my trading knowledge and understanding of the markets.

Today I’m looking at AUD/CAD. Let’s take a look at the weekly timeframe to start. You can clearly see price is currently in an uptrend. Price crossed above the 200 MA and then retested it as support, potentially giving us the springboard it needs to continue on upwards with the trend. You can see the bullish flag formation, which has also tagged a fib breather level. We’re now approaching a S/R zone and a RN so it will be interesting to see how buyers and sellers react. Note the bullish engulfing candle at the Value Index support suggesting a strong signal for a continuation.

Now let’s take a closer look at the daily chart. You can see price broke the squeeze formation upwards, favouring our edge to the upside. Price found support at the RN and we have a spinning top as our extreme candle at TL support, which is also nearing the Value Index. This is definitely one to keep on the watchlist – will it break through the resistance looming above or will it have a moment of indecision or even reverse? We can see with yesterdays candle there was some indecision in the market, so we may see price lose a little steam.

As we know, the market will do whatever it will do – so we simply need to be patient and neutral and wait for the market to make its move. Think about your edge, choose the appropriate strategy from your dynamic trader toolkit and then most importantly take action. As always please carry out your own analysis.

Here’s to great trading!

Sonia Molina

Review and set ups for the coming week

Dear Dynamic Traders,

Hope you are enjoying your weekend.

The EURCAD breached the Fib breather level but did not close above it. It then proceeded south. If you missed the entry its still not too late as it is currently being supported by the trendline and if you are conservative you may even wish for it to break the previous low before you enter.

I also mentioned the Loonie at the same time as this chart last week and the Loonie has since seen price fall.














The Swissy below is showing potential signs of a move south. Price has tagged previous lows and stochs is showing oversold. One to keep a keen eye on for a break down.














Also posted below is the AUDCAD daily chart. Price is currently at a trendline support area and appears to be somewhat into a squeeze. Will it bounce up from the support or will it breakdown?














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

AUDCAD consolidation before breakout

G'day Dynamic Traders,

The GBPJPY has provided some nice rewards on the pullback. The Swissy is still making HH and LL but note there is divergence on multiple timeframes so this continues to be on the watchlist for a pullback.


The AUDCAD weekly chart below displays several recent indecision candles. MACD is following price which is close to a significant figure.The daily chart of the same pair shows a triangle formation. Price has retraced to 50% Fib but failed to close above it for many days. As it comes into a squeeze/breather, a break out/down is likely. As Mark Douglas says "No one knows what is going to happen next in the markets" so this could happen today or it could happen in a few days all we have to do is be prepared for it.

Happy Trading!

Read Anne's forex blog here

Read FXCPS.co.uk forex blog here


Bijal Shah