AUDJPY - what next for price?

Morning Dynamic Traders

Hope you're enjoying the trading week so far. Yesterday saw some good movement on the markets - i hope you've managed to lock in some more profits and are remaining disciplined.

As mentioned on Zaheers blog post at fxcps.eu, I also had the CADCHF on my watchlist and have now been triggered into a long trade based on MOBO. Odds favoured a continuation with the uptrend, so let's now leave the markets to do what it's going to do and simply manage the trade accordingly.

I wanted to discuss the AUDJPY chart today. Looking at the weekly chart it's at a very significant point facing a cluster of resistances. We're in no position to second guess, but what we can see is price is faced with a very strong resistance, coupled with MACD divegence. Price could do three things: breakout and continue with the current trend, breakdown and reverse or consolidate.














Let's check out the daily chat for any further insights.














Admittedly it's not the best looking chart - there's been a lot of sideways action with deep pullbacks. Price is stuck in a S/R zone at the moment and needs to decide it's direction. On Monday price produced an indecision candle pushing price up yesterday with some rigour.

So what next? Price may breach the high and continue with its current upward nature - but remember the critical point it's at on the weekly timeframe - we also have daily divergence. Certainly a reversal could happen. A breakout of the weekly VI would be my preference before I consider a long on this pair. Should it reverse I would await a BOB of the VI.

As always please carry out your own analysis. Find out more about the Trading Room Webinars here.

Abundant Trading!
Sonia Molina

AUDJPY revisited

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

I last wrote about AUDJPY on 23 Nov. Price was testing the support TL for a fourth time and we had the possible 123786 formation. On the chart below we can see price broke the TL and also did a FBO at the VI support. Since then price has bounced back up - this may simply be a retest of the TL, it could be price trying to fight its way back to the comfort of its trend or even just part of a consolidation.

But remember we have the possible 123786 and some of you may have noticed the previous divergence also. So could we see price reversing? Of course, SM traders will be looking for a BOB of the VI at the very least before entering on a reversal trade. Check in on the weekly to gather some more insights. One to continue watching.
















As we have NFP due out tomorrow, my preference is to stay out of the markets during this time, so I will not be updating tomorrow. Have a great weekend.

Successful Trading!
Sonia Molina

AUDJPY - what next?

Good Morning Traders

Hope you all had a great weekend and are ready for another week of dynamic trading.

The AUDJPY has been in an up trend since Feb 09 and admittedly it's had some sizable breathers but overall the trend direction is up - the VI confirms that for us with it pointing upwards.

As you can see, price is being propped up by the support of the TL and I'm sure the strength of the VI below is also playing its part. The ST is giving up false bars on top and overall the uptrend still looks good. Now looking more closely at the price action, there is a possibility of a 123786, but this won't be confirmed until we have a BOB of the 2. But price has a number of barriers to break should it play out this chart pattern - we have the TL, VI, RN and a fib breather level all huddled together acting as a strong support. So caution should definitely be taken on any reversal trades.

Scenario 1: we could see the 123786 take form and see price break down.

Scenario 2: we see price bounce up and try to continue with it's current trend. Depending on your trading style, a trend trading entry could be taken soon or to play it safe await a BOB of the high.

As of this morning buyers are taking lead, but let's keep a watchful eye on this pair.

Have a great trading day.
Sonia Molina

AUDJPY welcomes BOB, GBP update

Good Evening Dynamic Traders

Apologies for there not being an image, I seem to be having technical problems with my software and it won't upload. Today we welcome a BOB on the AUDJPY daily chart - and a very bullish bar at that! We've been following this pair for a few weeks now in anticipation of this possible breakout. Both MACD and RSI are still showing good strength and momentum, although we've had quite a consistent run up in the past couple of weeks, so may see price take a breather soon.

Remember we have the up trend in our favour, price is above the VI, our recent consolidation tagged a fib breather level and we now have the BOB of a previous high. So stacking up the odds we're in good shape for a continuation to the upside. We are approaching a RN however, so may well see price lose some stream in the meantime. On the other hand it may well ignore the RN and just keep going! Dynamic Traders, using ESLT would be a good choice of tool here, armouring you from any potential FBO's.

Looking at the GBP we failed to see a breakdown and price has bounced up and broken above the VI. What does this mean? Will price resume to it's current up trend? Or is this simply a retest of the H&S neckline? Whatever the case price is still ranging, so my preference of entry will either be a BOB of the high or of the low. Until then as SM we should patiently await for price to make a definitive move.

As always please carry out your own analysis.

Wishing you all great trading!
Sonia Molina

Mid week review

Good Evening Dynamic Traders

We're already mid trading week! I'm having troubles updating images tonight but hopefully you can follow my comments. I'm checking in on my previous blogs on GBP, SGD, ZAR and AUDJPY.

Looking at GBPUSD, price yet again failed the BOB and rebounded off the support area where buyers obviously stepped in. What looked like a possible BOB yesterday morning, ended up very differently by close of the trading day. This is a great example of being patient and waiting for the market to make it's final move! You can see price is simply ranging between this VI R and S area, clearly telling us buyers and sellers are battling it out - who will win? Could we see a TT at the VI and a move down? Or will price continue to seek comfort near the VI for a while? Patience is key whatever the case.

SGD has had a bearish couple of days and on first glance we may think the breather is over. But of course as Dynamic Traders, we know this breather isn't complete without the BOB of the low. So again patience is needed to enter a possible trade here.

ZAR is also testing the support level tonight and should there be a BOB, remember we have the channel TL looming close below as the next barrier.

AUDJPY today has tagged the previous high and retreated slightly. Remember we have the RN clustered with the R, so we may see some indecision here before a potential BOB. Again wait for the confirmation and then take your action.

Remember, standing aside is also holding a position. You might be ready to trade, but the markets might not be ready for you. So be patient and wait for the correct signals to enter.

Please always carry out your own analysis.
Here's to great trading!

Sonia Molina

Review ZAR, SGD, AUDJPY

Happy Monday Dynamic Traders!

Hope you all had a wonderful weekend.

I wanted to start the week off by taking a quick look at the trades mentioned last week. Let's start with ZAR. Price did indeed find a resistance point at the figure/fib level and then continued down, however still remaining within the comfort of the channel. Price has recently found support and now seems undecided as to what to do next. Should we see a BOB of the low we then have the lower channel TL next on the cards as support so the move may be short lived. We could see price bounce back up to continue the channelling pattern.
















SGD also continued down, ignoring the figure. But from Friday price has been bullish and seems to be taking a breathe in the down trend. Price has tagged a breather level today but we could see further moves up before a continuation with the down trend.
















AUDJPY did see that BOB of the squeeze and has continued up ignoring the R & RN. The aggressive traders may have already entered this trade. The more conservative will be awaiting a BOB of the high for a potential continuation on the upside. We're fast approaching this area so all eyes on AUDJPY this week! Will it breakthrough or will it find R and reverse?

















Wishing you all a great Monday and a great day of trading!

Sonia Molina

AUDJPY BOB today? What next?

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

I hope you're all enjoying success on the markets so far this week. The blog from Tues on SGD has seen price continue down. If you're in this trade you should be enjoying good profits.

I'd like to take a look at the AUDJPY which I mentioned back in mid Sept. Since then we saw price continue ranging with no real set up to enter on. As of this morning, price is piercing through the upper TL of the triangle formation with some real rigour. Of course we're still very early in the trading day so anything can happen between now and close.
















Should we see a BOB, we then have a R level to contend with. Price has attempted to break this R several times without success. To strengthen the R level further we have the RN too. So what will price do? Well it doesn't have many options to be honest. It will either finally break the R and go up, or find it too difficult to break and reverse or simply continue ranging. All we can do is gather our information about the chart - we have the lovely trend as our friend, VI is acting as support for price and RSI has recently crossed above 50 - although it has been dipping up and down.

Should price break the R area, it then has the previous high to break before a possible continuation in the trend. So put the odds in your favour and await a correct entry.

One to check in on tonight to see how price finishes. As always please carry out your own analysis before entering a trade and always sanity check with your rules and TP.

Great trading!

Sonia Molina

Review of Week

Hi Dynamic Traders

I hope you're all enjoying the weekend! I also hope you've made time for your weekly analysis, assessment of current trades and new opportunities.

I'd like to do a review of the posts from this past week, to see how things have developed, or not as may be the case.

EURAUD was mentioned on Monday's blog and there was a potential continuation downwards on the horizon. As you can see we haven't seen that much develop with this pair. After such a long move down, it's expected that price will inevitably consolidate. Price seems to be finding comfort at the 17,000 region and continues to test the S/R zone area as resistance. By checking in on the weekly chart, you will see that the past few weeks have been quite small candles and ideally we're looking for momentum to pick up strength for whatever move this pair decides to do next! Let's see what the week ahead brings us.

Moving on to AUDJPY, our squeeze formation is still continuing and will be forced to make a decision very soon as to which direction it will go. Of course we can weigh up our odds and make our assessments, but we must always be patient and await for the market to dictate it's move. We did see a test of the upper TL, but didn't have the break and close needed to potentially enter for a continuation on the upside. So will the squeeze break upwards and continue with the current trend? Should this be the case, the conservative traders may want to wait for a break of the previous high before entering. Of course we may see price breakdown, although we do have the VI looming below which will surely act as support. Do check in on the weekly timeframe to furnish you with more insight. One to continue keeping on the watchlist!

USDCAD, mentioned on Wednesday is a similar story. We're seeing price wedge between the S and TL and we saw a fbo which tested the low and then retreated. Also take note of Friday's candle -indicating that sellers may still be in control! Again price is being squeezed into making a decision and as SM we'll be awaiting it's next move, armed and ready to take the appropriate action.

Overall, these pairs haven't seen any big moves this week for the swing trader, but that's how trading goes! This serves as a great reminder of the importance to be patient - you might be ready to trade but the markets might not be ready for you! Always remain neutral and don't have any expectations of the market.

Let's await and see how the market unfolds this week.

Here's to great trading for the week ahead!

Sonia Molina

AUDJPY battle

Morning Dynamic Traders

I'd like to bring your attention to the AUDJPY Daily chart. We're in a squeeze formation, so price very soon will be forced to make a decision as to who wins the battle - the buyers or the sellers.

Despite the deep pullback in June/July the trend is very much in an upward direction and as smart money we know that the trend is our friend so we would be looking for a long opportunity. You can see on the chart that price is finding support at the VI and we also have a RN in proximity to this. Check all your indicators to see what they suggest - stochastic is giving us a black bar on top, confirming the uptrend. If you look closer, there are other confluences. See what you can uncover on this chart by using your Dynamic Trader toolkit.

















As always please carry out your own analysis. Remember don't second guess the market, just be ready for the market to make its move.

Here's to great trading!
Sonia Molina

Review of the week

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Hope you have all had a lovely weekend.

I would like to start by reviewing some of the posts from last week.

The USDJPY (mentioned on the 2nd September) has come close to a double bottom and has had two bullish days. It is not currently showing any signs of breaking the previous low. Once the pullback has completed this chart may be revisited.

The price of Gold made it very close to the 1000 mark and the candle for Friday has produced a doji. It will be interesting to see if the buyers are able to dominate and break the 1000 mark.

The Loonie has produced a double top formation and price retreated down. Of course NFP and Canadian employment news on Friday may be contributory factors towards this move. This chart is now on the watchlist for a break of the low for entry with ESLT.

The EURGBP mentioned on the 31st August has broken downwards although the movement has not been huge. I wrote on the blog that we were looking for a break down, however, price has been moving to the upside in the current minor trend. Price is currently at a Fib breather level measured from the most recent low. It will be interesting to see if this is a pullback before price continues towards the upside continuing the recent minor trend or will break through and resume the current major trend.


A chart that I have not mentioned recently is Silver, which similar to Gold is looking interesting. You will note from the below that price has broken through the trendline and is now testing a strong previous resistance level. Price has tagged the resistance level and retreated but the bar finished green. The recent uptrend has not been entirely smooth however, the retest of the VI has proved the buyers are stronger than the sellers so far. One for the watchlist to see if a breakout is produced so advantage can be taken of this commodity.














The final chart for tonight is the AUDJPY. Price has been in a uptrend and has recently done a pullback, bounced off the trendline support and started to move back up. A trendline resistance has been broken and produced a BOB. Aggressive traders may apply ESLT and enter the trade, conservative traders may wait until the previous resistance has been cleared before entering the opportunity. Either way there is no right or wrong, its up to the individual's intestinal fortitude!














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

AUDJPY

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

After a period of consolidation, the Cable and Euro have managed to breakthrough previous resistances today. Next up the AUDJPY is looking to do similar. Price is approaching previous resistance and if the momentum continues then we could see a breakthrough to the upside. Please note I have deliberately kept the chart very simple today as the most important thing to focus on is price action.














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

AUDJPY gathering momentum?

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Hope you have had a enjoyable week so far. I have selected the AUDJPY chart for tonight's blog. Apologies for a slightly messy chart, however, I wanted to ensure I get some of the angles covered. The Daily chart shows that price has found support around the 71 mark and bounced back (possibly to resume the trend). Some of the traders out there may have thought that they have missed their opportunity on this by 3 or 4 days.

The more experienced traders will know that it is very difficult to get in at the very low and get out at the high. My point is that it is not too late and you have not missed the "boat". Price is approaching several key items which will provide us with indication of imminent action. These include resistance levels and trendline resistances, Fib reversal levels and RNs. Of course if the bears are stronger then price will find the items mentioned to be obstacles and will not be able to penetrate them driving price to go down.

If however the bulls take charge and are proved to be the more dominant force then price will break through the barriers and head north. Either way opportunity will be present. Trading with the trend will be far easier and will carry less risk.















Wishing you all a fantastic weekend and a good trading week ahead. Due to work/travel commitments my next blog will be the week after next.

Bijal Shah

AUDJPY for the watchlist

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Hope you have had a great week. We are almost at the end of another trading week, in the middle of the year and approaching the longest day of the year (at least in the UK). Hope the first 6 months have been enjoyable and the next 6 will be even more memorable!

I have posted the AUDJPY and the EURGBP today.

The AUDJPY weekly chart shows price has tagged a Fib breather level on its recent uptrend and has imminently retreated. Not surprisingly this activity was close to a RN. Will the price continue up or will it resume the previous downtrend?














The daily chart shows the trend line which price has been regularly using as support and is now approaching a resistance level/squeeze. I have displayed three possible scenarios (up/down/sideways until it pops out of the squeeze). You may say that is fairly non committal, and I would have to agree with you. The reason for this is not because I wish to withhold information but because just like you, I do not know what is going to happen next, and therefore it is pointless guessing. The better position to be in is keep an unbiased eye on it for further clues and then decide. We have accumulated many clues or confluences which currently are mild mannered. Once they are more prominent the smart money will be ready to reap the rewards.














Following on from my previous EURGBP post on Sunday, price broke through and then went up to re-test and provide a potential second chance for those that missed it the first time :). Price is at a breather level and we don't yet know if it has completed its re-test or if there is more left, therefore await the signals of a continuation and then place your orders.














Have an awesome weekend and build in some reflection time at a half year milestone. I will be unable to post any blogs next week but my learned bloggers will no doubt provide excellent benefit from their analysis and experience.

I would like to say a big thank you to you the readers for your kind words and comments, it really is very encouraging and rewarding to know that the posts are contributing towards growth and successful trading.

Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

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Euro & AUDJPY revisited

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Hope you got some well deserved fun and rest this weekend. I have decided to revisit the Euro and AUDJPY tonight. As it's Sunday evening the data is not streaming properly and therefore please ignore the last bar.

There were several posts on the Euro last week from myself and my learned fellow bloggers. Below are the weekly and daily charts.

You will note from the chart that price has broken through the value index successfully on both the weekly and daily charts. It has also broken through a trendline and has tagged a more longer term trendline. With such bullish signals why not go long?















Note on the daily chart below, price is approaching a previous resistance which could also prove to be a double top. In addition there is the trendline which will act as resistance. If price breaks through both of these then a rally may be witnessed. Watch this chart over the next days and be open to an opportunity should it present itself.














AUDJPY

My last post on this pair was last Sunday. It appeared to show signs of a reversal with a potential 123886. However price did not concede and continued bullishly upwards.

I have posted both the weekly and daily charts for a fuller picture. Price has broken through the near term resistances and is looking fairly good for a continuation. On the shorter timeframe (4 hour) however, MACD is showing fairly strong divergence which is something to be mindful of should your confluences suggest you should trade this currency pair.



























Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

Opportunity Flow

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Hope you are having a lovely weekend. It has been a weekend of education and lessons learned thanks to a great sounding board. I cannot emphasise enough the need to review your trading activity after the event and use it as education to make improvements and refinements.

Well done to Sonia on a successful trading week.

Tonight's set up of of the AUDJPY. The weekly chart shows that price has reached a Fib breather cluster.

The Daily chart below shows that price has been bullish and has successfully penetrated the VI. It is now heading for the previous resistance level and if it breaks through it could continue the recent uptrend. If however, price fails to break through, it could create a double top and head downwards. Long term divergence can be observed on the MACD.














If we take a closer look at a slightly smaller timeframe notable confluences can be spotted for a 123886 set up. MACD is presenting divergence at the right areas, a reversal candle is present at point 1, the figure is in close proximity and a Fib reversal level has been tagged. In addition the 60 minute timeframe also presents MACD divergence. A smaller timeframe should enable an accurate entry in either case.














Prosperous Trading!
Bijal Shah

Sunday Review & Analysis

Greetings Forex Traders,

Hope you are having an outstanding weekend. My weekend has been one of taking check of where I am and whether I am on track to get to my goals.

The review below is of currencies I have posted previously. These include the AUDJPY, Loonie and GBPCHF.

AUDJPY
At the point of my last post on this currency pair the price was at 68.82 and facing a strong resistance level. It managed to break thorough on the 4th attempt (240 chart) and went up to 72.32 (350 pips). Will price continue to rally?

The chart below shows that price has broken through the resistance line with a large bullish bar but is now the in company of the VI and a RN. Coupled with these items, there are two other confluences, MACD divergence and a candle in the form of a hanging man. You will see that MACD divergence has also formed on the 4 hour chart below. Bearing all this in mind it is possible for the price to have a breather or reverse in the short term before a continuation or rally.



























Loonie
The Loonie on the last post was showing signs of a double top. It in fact continued north closer to a more significant pivot area and then retreated some 500 pips.

Price is now heading towards a support zone, is displaying a reversal candle and is close to a RN. All these signs suggest that if already in the trade, tighten your stops to protect your profit, if not in the trade, keep it on the watchlist for a possible reversal. It is the fourth time that price will now be testing the trendline support (visible on a daily chart) as it gets closer to the RN. Note although we do not necessarily have HHs, we do have LLs each time price does a bounce off the trendline support.














GBPCHF
The daily chart for the GBPCHF shows a nice clear triangle breakout with not too many hurdles before the next resistance level. Is it as good as it looks? A look at a lower timeframe is required I think...














The 240 timeframe shows price at a previous resistance level and a potential double top formation. In addition MACD is diverging and note the proximity to a RN, these may be additional confluences to confirm a reversal albeit temporary. I will wait to see is price breaks through the resistance and apply my ESLT filter to go long or wait for the breather to complete and start following the shorter term trend (to confirm this you may consider looking at the HH and LLs).














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

AUS breakouts

Good evening forex traders,

The AUDJPY chart is displaying some potential opportunities. Below is the 120 chart showing a triangle formation. Price has tagged the trendline almost 3 times with a potential 4th on the horizon. Price is very close to a RN and also and the last candle we see is a doji.

So what does this all mean?
If price is to continue its recent uptrend, it needs to break through the trendline and the resistance highlighted on the chart below. MACD is showing divergence on numerous timeframes. What this may indicate is that price may retreat and test previous support before actually re-testing the trendline. Patience is key here, await the correct signals before entering. It's better to enter a little later and safely accumulate pips rather than second guess (which btw is very easily done and we have all been there) and be stuck with a trade in the wrong direction due to haste or fear of missing out.














Tonight's second chart is the AUDUSD. Price has broken through the trendline resistance, got to within 2 pips of 70 and then stalled. Again MACD divergence is present in more than one timeframe indicating a possible reversal. Employ the ESLT filters to ensure that you do not get caught out by a FBO should price decide to continue upwards.














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

Missed The Overnight Trade

Good morning dynamic traders. As you know from previous forex analysis, I have been waiting for a set up on the AUDJPY for a short and last night we had it. For those that have been trading for a while you will know trading does not always go to plan and last night was one of those times.

I had placed an order to go short based on my trading model at just over the 96 figure and this morning the AUDJPY has travelled down over 150 pips at the time of writing this. Unfortunately my position did trigger and was missed by only 1 pip. When I checked the chart this morning I was very pleased to see the decline on the AUDJPY cross until that is I opened up my trading platform and saw my position had not been tagged.

So, looking at the AUDJPY the trendline has now been broken and the price is likely to go to the 94.00 mark. If it continues beyond that then 93.00 zone is likely to be the next target.

If any of the forex traders I trained reading this are in this trade then I suggest you should look to manage the trade.


AUDJPY forex chart from Advanced Get.

The Euro has found little strength and although bounced, it is clear the money that has been in this so far is the dumb money. The smart money have not started buying this pair yet. If the smart money get involved with this then 1.5000 - 1.5200 zone could be their target.

My forex analysis on August 13th which you can read here suggested the GBPUSD could find support at the 1.85 zone and sure enough it did. The support has produced a minor bounce from a larger perspective and a big bounce from an intra day perspective. If the bounce continues then near term resistance will be at the 1.8750 level.

Today's Dynamic Trader Toolkit pivot points are below.



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Good trading.

Forex Analyst
Javid Shaik

Consumer Sentiment

Expect some volatility on the markets today as consumer sentiment will be released. The expectation is 62% and if the actual value released is greater than the 62% expectation then that will normally indicate strength for the Dollar.

Euro had a minimal intra day bounce before it's downtrend continuation but a further continuation or a reversal could pend on today's consumer sentiment.

We took another position on the AUDJPY with 80 pips in profit zone and managing the trade. It is unlikely we will hold this position over the weekend.

Below are today's daily pivot points.


Source: Dynamic Trader Forex Toolkit.


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Good trading.

Forex Analyst
Javid Shaik

Understanding Forex Charts

Good morning dynamic traders.

The Euro Dollar had reached and breached the support level where the double bottom resided. It is now at 1.5000 zone and finding support with a bounce overnight of 100 pips. The 1.5000 is a previous resistance and a psychological support. This pair is deep into oversold levels so we pullback soon is likely. However, a pullback and continuation to the downside should not be written off but a pullback non the less.

The Dollar Swiss Franc is close to a previous resistance and just popped above the institutional moving average on Friday and overnight started to head to the downside. This could be a pop and drop or a reversal and it is too early to tell so price should take us into this trade unless those of you who are aggressive traders positioned yourselves last night for a pop and drop. This too has moved in the region of 100 pips to the downside overnight with support at 1.0730 level.

The Australian Yen has made us good profits and intraday has reversed. We were stopped out overnight on this cross but are looking for another entry riding the short towards the 96.00 zone. However, we may have a pullback before this happens so patience maybe necessary.

Todays daily pivot points are below.


Source: Dynamic Trader Forex Toolkit

Have a good trading week.


Forex Analyst
Javid Shaik

Euro Support Breached

Good morning dynamic traders. I woke up to see the Euro has breached the support level of 1.53 which has now changed the medium term outlook on this pair. This is as a result of Trichet suggesting concern in the Euro zone growth. Further support at 1.5000.

The Euro Dollar short term is mixed.
The Euro Dollar medium term is bearish.
The Euro Dollar long term is bullish.


Advanced Get Euro Dollar daily chart.

On yesterdays webinar we discussed further move south for the AUDJPY. Overnight on weak Japanese data the Yen continued the downside against the Aussie Dollar providing 100 pips additional profit and the USDJPY also continued the uptrend.


Advanced Get Australian Dollar Japanese Yen daily chart.


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Good trading.

Forex Analyst
Javid Shaik