Monday update & CADJPY revisited
Good Afternoon Dynamic Traders
I hope you all enjoyed the glorious weather this weekend! ... and still made time for your weekly trading preparation.
USDSGD mentioned last week has been triggered for a short based on MOBO. Inevitably there was some profit taking after the big bearish candle but it's now continuing to weaken.
My EUR related trades are continuing to weaken today locking in further profits.
I wrote about CADJPY on 1 April - it's been on my watchlist to revist once there was a pullback and signals for a continuation. But the question for me yesterday was 'Is this a high probability trade?' The answer is no, despite the recent bullish flag and reversal candle.
1. Trend: I knew the trend wasn't the strongest - you can see its zig zaggy nature and although it's gained some momentum recently, it's not a strong uptrend.
2. S/R zone: Above price is as an S/R zone and my T1 would be in the midst of this, so not a good set up.
3. RN: There's a major RN soon after the S/R zone.
A lesson for me on this chart and analysis is that a few weeks ago, I saw what I wanted to see without carefully considering the possible physical and psychological resistance areas. I'm glad I was patient as I now have a different feeling about the trade. Much like the AUDJPY chart mentioned last week, the weekly is also fast approaching a R cluster.
My trading personality is pretty conservative, so the more aggressive traders out there may have a different view. Goes without saying, but do carry out your analysis and make your own judgement.
So as the dragons would say, "I'm out". There are better trades out there.
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