GBPCHF - FBO or just a breather?

Morning Dynamic Traders

What a lovely sunny weekend we had here in London! I hope you all had an enjoyable one wherever you are. Last week was pretty volatile what with all the high impact news. This week we should see currencies finding their feet again.

The AUDNZD I mentioned last week has indeed given a BOB on the weekly chart. Caution should be taken as price is still at a RN and the Daily chart is now having a breather - which is no surprise after a healthy run up. Should the right confluences present themselves a continuation with the uptrend may be on the cards. Patience..

GBPCHF Daily Chart: It's clear to see the consolidation this pair has been in for the past 5 months or so. Monday saw a big bearish move, piercing the support area but then hesitating and bouncing back up. So what next?

















This may have been a FBO, in which case price could continue upwards and resume it's ranging personality. Or price may simply be catching its breathe before it's next move down. Analyse the chart and see what confluences you can uncover for yourself. We're in no position to second guess the markets and as SM Traders we know very well that patience and market confirmation is what's needed for an entry here. So let's keep a watchful eye on this pair.

As always please carry out your own analysis and be confident with your trades.

Abundant Trading!
Sonia Molina

Patient trading pays off

Good Day Dynamic Traders,

Having seen the communications from our mentor and other bloggers it appears that many of you have been doing tremendously well recently on your trades. This is fantastic news and makes it all the more worthwhile to do the blog posts.

As Javid always says that trading should be boring, it should not be exciting which is how you can keep your emotions under control. Someone asked me the other day if I was to describe my trading journey, what would I say? I think for me having been doing it for just over three years now, it is all about the simplicity. Keep it simple and it works, if you complicate it you end up losing the plot and getting very frustrated.

I have some updates below on the charts I have been talking about and also a new potential.

The EURNZD has been finding support as can be seen below and has tested the same area three times recently. This is one to be patient with, let the price tell you what you need to do and when. Its like intuition, if you listen out, you will surely get direction. No point second guessing.















I have posted the weekly chart for the CADCHF again because its a lot easier to demonstrate. Price is showing bullish signs and is now tackling the VI in addition to being at a crucial Fib reversal area. If the buyers win then we will see a clear breakout at which point some may enter. The rest may decide to enter at the break of the previous resistance.














GBPCHF has been in somewhat of a consolidation mode albeit with large moves within the channel. Price is now showing bearish signs and has broken through previous support. The decision to make is will it hold and if so where do you enter. Use your choice of entry techniques to help determine.














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

GBPCHF update

Afternoon Dynamic Traders

Just checking in on the GBPCHF today. I mentioned this pair last week and soon after I was triggered into a short. NFP on Friday may well have made a few traders a little nervous with the big spike in the day. This was caused by a frenzy of buying and selling at the time of the news release - a great way for the markets to sweep out short and long traders!














My stop remained above the VI so my trade was in a safe zone. Discipline is definitely what's needed in times like this..some may have been tempted to tighten their stops or close their positions but I stuck to my original plan with this trade.

Price is now gaining momentum in it's down move and on it's way to T1. Price is below the major RN and VI, suggesting price bearishness. MACD now being below the midline also supports this. Depending on your trading appetite there is an opportunity to enter if price gives a bob of the recent pivot. Remember, it's not the best looking chart! But with the current ranging personality and all the confluences mentioned, there could be some profits for the taking! But please do carry out your own analysis before placing any trades.

Each day, no matter how small it may seem, find a way to improve your trading in some way. Read a chapter from a trading book (there are some great suggestions here on the site), backtest, analyse some new currencies.. just keep up the momentum of learning and progressing! Trading isn't supposed to be fun, but you can definitely make it interesting!

Successful trading!
Sonia Molina

Gold & GBPCHF triggered

Morning Dynamic Traders

Gold made a 24 point move up yesterday, producing a bullish bar at a support/fib reversal area. Stacking this up with the confluences mentioned in yesterdays blog, as well as ST now curling up, gave me more than enough confluences to enter aggressively on this trade. I have now been triggered using a pullback strategy and already in profits.

















Another trade I have been triggered into is GBPCHF. You can see we have a triple top possibility. VI is acting as R and the recent extreme candle is a doji which was also a head fake - since then price has been weakening. The recent market 'pre-shake' may have stopped out some traders if they had tight stops. Again I'm using an aggressive stance on this trade, as there are many confluences to support a continuation down. Of course the downside to this chart is that price is currently in a range, so I have to be prepared to be in this trade for some time if price decides to go sideways. My rationale is, so long as this trade can make a potential 1:1 RR.

















Of course with all trades there's the possibility it could go against you, as the market could do anything. This is why you must always have a pre-determined stop loss and an amount of capital you are prepared to lose.

Always carry out your own analysis and trade according to your own rules and trading personality.

Great trading!
Sonia Molina

GBPCHF update

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

I posted the GBPCHF last Tuesday and price initially went down and then started to go up. Most of the time upon entering a trade or being triggered the profits don't always arrive instantly and it makes us question ourselves and doubt whether we should have gone in. One of the things I have learned is to persist, and follow my rules and discipline and not worry while the trade is still in negative territory.

Price is approaching several resistances so it may turn and come back down. Of course there is always a possibility that it will break through and the bulls will take over in which case I will get stopped out and that is all part of trading. If price does turn it will present an opportunity to enter.













Gold has produced some good profits for a few people I know. who took a very aggressive stance. I did not post on it yesterday as it produced a doji and the direction was still unclear. Whether price has definitely turned is anybody's guess but for the moment the signs are looking slightly bullish.

Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

GBPCHF breather

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Hope you are having a good week. Gold is doing a pullback after a nice run up, as we all know nothing continues to go up in a straight line (big move, small pause, big move).

I have posted the GBPCHF chart below. I have taken an aggressive stance on this and entered short based on the trend, Fib breather levels, RN and candlestick formations. The more conservative trader will likely wait for a break of the low.














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

GBPCHF update

Good Day Dynamic Traders,

I thought I would do a quick update on the GBPCHF today as I see some changes. Price has reached a Fib breather level and reacted with a bearish engulfing candle. We can also see MACD divergence. It will be interesting to see if price will continue to pullback to provide a short opportunity.














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

Nearly Midweek

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

The previously mentioned AUD has not done much since the last post despite news items. The bars are fairly small and there appears to be some indecision going on. The best thing to do here is to wait and watch before taking any action.

The GBPCHF pair has been through the consolidation and has provided us with a breakout. Price is now heading upwards towards the VI and previous resistance. It will be interesting to see if it makes it to the next level of resistance or whether today was just traders remorse and price will start continuing the trend. Personally, I don't have enough signals to for entry and going long means going against the recent trend so I will wait aside for price to tell me more.














The GBPCAD pair is showing signs of a squeeze. Having bounced off the VI twice price is trying to test it a third time, will we have a triple top in a downtrend? Note the other confluences that price will be facing close to the VI, this should give you good signals if you are patient.














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

GBPCHF breather

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Below is the chart for the GBPCHF pair which has been in a recent downtrend. A pullback has been taking place and price has hit a Fib breather level. The last few candles seem a little suspect in terms of indecision with large wicks and smaller bodies which may indicate a change. One to put on the watchlist for entry opportunity.













I won't be posting any new set up's tomorrow given it is NFP/volatility on Friday.


Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

GBPCHF resuming trend?

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Tonight's post is one highlighted to me by a good friend. Below are the weekly and daily charts for the GBPCHF. As you can see price has been in a down trend for some time. The beginning of this year saw price do a pullback to a Fib breather level. Price then did what looks like a double top and has started to retreat back down again only last week breaking through the trendline again. The aggressive traders may have already entered at the breather level to join the trend. The conservatives may require further confirmation and may decide to enter with a combination of breakouts and ESLT.


























Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

Non Farm Payroll week

Good Day Dynamic Traders,

Hope you are having a good week. All the pound related news items today were better than forecasted and this has helped it to keep up the rally.

Below are the day charts for GBPCHF and the Swissy.

The GBPCHF has been in a recent uptrend but has been coming into a squeeze. Now at a previous resistance will price manage to break up and continue the recent rally?















The Swissy has been consolidating for a while now. There is no guarantee that price will break out of the consolidation just yet however, a couple of indicators may be the fact that the EUR and GBP have broken out and also it is NFP on Friday which generally tends to make the markets move. One to keep an eye on for an opportunity to ride the wave.















As mentioned it is NFP on Friday so I will not be posting any new set ups tomorrow.

Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

Are you ready?

Good evening Dynamic Traders,

Featuring on tonight's blog are the GBPCHF and the AUDNZD charts.

GBPCHF
Price on the below chart has been steadily climbing up being supported by the trendline. Having gone through the VI, it has come back for a retest. The question is was it a FBO or will it resume the trend up? Await the correct signals and employ ESLT for entry.















AUDNZD

This chart has featured on my blog several times recently but price has continued to oscillate. Therefore it continues to be on my watchlist because at some point price will complete its breather and break out.

Price has tested and restested the support line, all the while time producing lower highs and arguably lower lows. Price has broken through the support line, VI, and trendline is curently contemplating closing beyond the obstacles just mentioned. ESLT or similar filters will ensure you don't suffer if there is a FBO should price gain momentum and head further south.















Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

GBPCHF tests again

Good Morning Dynamic Traders,

Below is the daily and 4 hour chart for the GBPCHF pair. Price has tested the most recent resistance level (which is also a Fib breather, and a RN) several times. It produced signs of a breakthrough via a bullish candle on Wednesday the 27th May, however, that appears to be a FBO. The application of ESLT would have ensured that the smart money did not get triggered. We now see signs of a reversal candle in the form of tram tracks and price heading southwards.














The four hour chart shows further breakdown of the downward movement with price facing support level challenges. What is appearing before us does not confirm that the direction has necessarily changed and it could well be a breather before price tries to test the resistance level again. What we would now look for is further signs to confirm if the trend has changed so you can enter short (LH's, LL's) or wait for price to resume the rally.















Best wishes for an awesome weekend.

Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

GBPCHF Triple Top?

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Last week I mentioned the GBPCHF was in a squeeze formation. Since then the price has not broken out but is showing a potential triple top and is at a trend line resistance. These strong signals are coupled with divergence on multiple time frames indicating that a possible reversal may be in the making.

ESLT may be employed for either a continuation should the price decide to break through or produce a reversal.


























Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

GBPCHF Squeeze

Dear Dynamic Traders,

The GBPCHF chart below shows price coming into a squeeze formation. The reason for posting a weekly chart is to show the bigger picture. Price has come down and then consolidated before doing another move down. Since then it has retraced to a Fib breather level. Given price has been in such a long term downtrend, indications are showing possible signs of a bearish flag. Whichever direction price decides to break out the smart money will be ready.














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

GBPCHF continuation

Dear Dynamic Traders,

Welcome to the start of another trading week. I trust you all had a super weekend. It never ceases to amaze me how much can be packed into 2 days.

Two GBPCHF charts have been posted below for this evening's discussion. The weekly chart shows clearly that the trend is down and has been for some time. Price has produced a beautiful 2 legged extension. After a big move down it did a breather and has hit resistance around the 1.750 mark which also happens to coincide with Fib levels.















The Daily chart shows some more detail. Once price hit the 1.750 mark it bounced down and went into consolidation mode and eventually broke out (down) of the squeeze. MACD kindly produced some signals beforehand too. With the confluences presented on the chart below, I am now looking for a good entry point utilising the filters shared with us by our great "Joda".














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

Swiss chocolate mousse (for those who wait)

Dear Dynamic Traders,

It has been a good day on the EURGBP today, we were provided with a nice breakdown.

The GBPCHF is now showing a triangle and a potential head and shoulders on the 240 chart. I am looking for a break down for the price to continue following the trend although as we know anything can happen therefore, there could be a break out on the upside too. I will wait for my signal and patience may be required here before entering the trade.














Good Trading!
Bijal Shah

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Re-visiting the GBPCHF

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Hope you had a phenominal weekend. It seems that we (in England) have a variety to experience in terms of weather, snow and now terrential rain. The universe is helping the train drivers produce some good excuses for disruptions to people who are so desperate to get to work. I wonder if we can make the sun come out? Enough about the weather (no mentioning Phil Scolari..) so I will stop now and move on to my analysis for this evening.

I have done a revisit on the GBPCHF pair this evening. The weekly chart shows the longer term trend to be down. The price has almost retraced to a Fib breather level. Given that this is a longer timeframe, as you know it normally dictates the course of events.














The daily chart unearths a lot more.
I mentioned a possible inverted head and shoulders on my last post. Price broke through decisively last Thursday and it's now approaching a RN, support turned resistance and Fib clusters. If price manages to break through there may be further mileage left if the chart pattern holds true. If you are in the position, manage it carefully.

Chart courtesy of Advanced Get


Good Trading!

Bijal Shah

Reflection on GBPCHF

Dear Dynamic Traders,

Yesterday's post of the GBPCHF highlighted a potential triple top. The price mustered up strength today to the upside and did not look back. It has definitively broken through the resistance. Although the analysis yesterday showed a potential opportunity to the downside, it could be that the news today has had an impact on the move.

I have subsequently spotted a possible inverted head and shoulders (I say possible as you cannot be sure until the move has happened). The move up has been too big and my risk management does not permit me to enter the trade at this point. In addition there is a doji apparent at the time of writing this. I will now wait for the price to retrace and enter if the confluence of events still hold true.

Chart courtesy of Advanced Get

Good Trading!

Bijal Shah

GBPCHF Double Top

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Hope you are all having a great week - trains, planes and automobiles all finally returning slowly back to normal in London after a dusting of the white stuff. I would like to say a big thank you to Reath Witherspoon and Super Coolio, very amazing, generous & humourous souls.

I have analysed the GBPCHF chart for this evening's analysis. The long term trend has been down since July 2007. The daily chart shows a retrace to the Fib breather level and from the snapshot below you can see that the price has tested the same level several times previously with little success.

The 240 chart shows a potential triple top formation. Price may continue upwards to test the previous level as it has not yet quite tagged it or it may decide to head south directly. I will look to go short when the correct entry signals are available to me. Await your confluence of events and enter with the relevant filters.

Chart courtesy of Advanced Get

I am unsure if I will get the opportunity to update again tomorrow night, if I don't have an outstanding weekend.

Good trading!
Bijal Shah

GBPCHF continuation

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

The Loonie mentioned last night, rallied in excess of 200 pips today, reached the 1.200 mark and retraced. The daily chart stands with a bullish engulfing candle in between a trendline and a support line.

Below are 3 charts on the GBPCHF. Although I have picked this pair please note that there is news out tomorrow on the GBP and it is anticipated that there will be an interest rate cut so trade with caution.

The daily chart shows a trendline and the next resistance that price is approaching. The main indicators show strength in the current uptrend, therefore price should look to continue its journey up.

The 240 chart shows the value index acting as resistance and MACD divergence.
Finally, the 15 minute chart, displays resistance and trendline support. If price breaks the resistance (which has been tested twice so far) then a good set up may be created by a BOB.

Risk free trading

Bijal Shah